Monday, March 22, 2010

Comparing 2010 projection to the actual comp picks

Below is a chart showing a comparison of my projections to the comp picks the NFL awarded today. Picks shaded green are those that I projected in the correct round, and picks shaded yellow are those on which I was off by one round. Although I correctly projected Tampa Bay to get a seventh-round pick, I projected it to be a non-compensatory pick, but it turned out to be a net-value pick, so I'm not counting it as a correct pick. I'm also not counting Miami's net-value pick in the seventh round as being off by one round, even though I projected the Dolphins to receive a sixth-round pick.

(Click on the image to see a larger version.)

In the third round, I had the picks for Tennessee and Cincinnati switched. I'll try to figure out why Albert Haynesworth's contract value used in the formula was so low.

In the fourth round, Cincinnati got a pick for Stacy Andrews because Laveranues Coles did not count in the equation. Although I projected Coles to count, I did say that the Bengals probably would get a fourth for Andrews if Coles did not count.

In the fifth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I missed the next three because the cutoff point for the fifth round did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. The lower cutoff point bumped the picks for Minnesota and Green Bay into the fifth round and gave San Diego a fifth for Igor Olshansky instead of a seventh for Mike Goff, as I explained in my projections.

In the sixth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I again missed the next three because the cutoff point did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. In addition, Miami did not get the sixth I projected, because Joe Berger qualified for the equation and I did not project him to qualify.

In the seventh round, I again missed several because players qualified who were not projected to qualify (namely Mark Jones, Hunter Smith, Larry Izzo and Brandon McGowan). In addition, it appears that I need to change the playing time I use for special-teamers (in this case, Hunter Smith and Lonie Paxton). I missed the net-value pick for Miami because Berger qualified, and I missed the net-value pick for Tampa Bay because Angelo Crowell did not, possibly because he was on Injured Reserve for every game of the only season of his contract.

Using the correct cutoff points and the correct playing time for special-teamers, I've been able to recreate the order of all but the first two comp picks of the third round. Figuring out why Tennessee's third-round comp pick for Haynesworth was not the highest pick should help me learn more about what elements in a contract are not included in the formula.

I'll post more as I continue to analyze this year's comp picks.


John said...

I just find it awesome that someone is trying to essentially reverse engineer the secret formula.
Thanks for the info and keep it up!

Mike from Cincinnati said...

Adam, this is a pretty interesting blog. Thanks for providing fans an understanding of how the NFL awards these picks.

As a Bengals' fan, I am very happy with the award of a 3rd and a 4th, and I am also glad that you happened to be "wrong" on Laveranues Coles. Why do you think he failed to qualify under the compensatory system? Do you think the NFL viewed his contract "renegotiation"/expiration simply as him being cut? Or was there another reason why he failed to qualify?