Sunday, June 7, 2009

A quick update's Mike Sando mentioned this blog again in his June 7 post about the 2010 comp picks, and he provided a helpful piece of information, as well. Sando said he can confirm that, as expected, no teams extended June 1 tenders to any of their remaining Unrestricted Free Agents. As I explained in my most recent post on this blog, that means any additional UFA signings this year won't be included in the equation for the 2010 comp picks.

Sando also asked for my analysis of the Seahawks' outlook for 2010 comp picks. That's a pretty easy one, so I'll oblige. The Seahawks signed four UFAs and lost seven UFAs by June 1. One player they signed (Bryan Pittman) and two players they lost (Will Heller and Howard Green) did not sign for enough money to qualify. That leaves three signed and five lost who might qualify. Of those, one player they signed (John Owens) and one player they lost (Floyd Womack) are on the bubble for qualifying. I labeled both of them as "high bubble" players in my previous post, meaning that their average contract values rank near the upper end of the players on the bubble. The Seahawks also signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Colin Cole, and they lost Rocky Bernard, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver and Bobby Engram. As long as none of them get released before a certain point in time (seemingly Week 10 of the regular season), all six of those players should qualify for the comp equation. Whether Owens and Womack qualify might depend on their playing time, although they also might qualify even if they never play a single snap.

Unless Seattle releases and thereby disqualifies Houshmandzadeh and/or Cole, the Seahawks once again won't get a comp pick higher than the seventh round. (They got three seventh-round comp picks this year.) Houshmandzadeh and Cole both signed for more money per season than anyone the Seahawks lost, and they would cancel out the losses of the two highest-valued players the Seahawks lost, Bernard and Morris. The other players Seattle lost, Weaver, Engram and Womack (if he qualifies), would be worth seventh-round comp picks at best, based on their average contract values.

If none of the players involved are released, the Seahawks could receive one, two or three seventh-round comp picks, depending on whether Owens and Womack qualify. If they both qualify, or of neither qualifies, the Seahawks would get two comp picks. If Owens qualifies and Womack does not, Seattle would get one comp pick. And if Womack qualifies but Owens does not, the Seahawks could get three comp picks.

There are two other details that I should mention. The first is that if Owens does qualify, even if just barely, he would cancel out the loss of the Seahawks' highest-valued seventh-round comp player, which almost certainly will be Weaver. That would leave Seattle with a comp pick for Engram and possibly one for Womack, if he qualifies. It's a small detail, but it would mean that the Seahawks' first seventh-round comp pick would be a little lower than it would be if Owens did not qualify. The second detail is that if Womack does qualify and Owens does not, even though the Seahawks' equation would say they should get a comp pick for Womack, it's possible that the maximum of 32 comp picks could be reached before the pick for Womack is awarded. In that case, Seattle would not get a comp pick for him. There's only a slim chance of that happening, but it does need to be mentioned.

As I said, the Seahawks' situation is an easy one to analyze, but that doesn't mean we already know exactly what they'll be getting when the NFL hands out comp picks next year. There still are far too many factors involved in the equation that could change between now and the end of the regular season.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Qualifying free agents for the 2010 comp picks

The NFL free agency period doesn’t end until July 22, but in regard to the equation for 2010 compensatory picks, the signing deadline essentially passed on June 1. My research indicates that any free agent signed after June 1 will not qualify for the comp picks equation unless his former team gave him a “June 1 tender” – basically an offer of a 10 percent raise (see Article XIX, Section 1, Subsection (b)(i) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement for the details of June 1 tender requirements). Because most players worthy of a 10 percent raise are signed in the early stages of free agency, very few (if any) players receive a June 1 tender. Because June 1 tenders for Unrestricted Free Agents don’t count against the salary cap, it’s not known at this time whether any remaining UFAs received a June 1 tender.

Not all UFAs who signed by June 1 will count in the equation for comp picks. Some player will be disqualified by being released by their new team before or during training camp, during the preseason or early in the regular season. Other players didn’t sign for enough money to qualify, no matter what they do.

Below is a preliminary list of all of the UFAs – true UFAs, not players who had been released by their former team – who were lost or signed by each team by June 1. Each group is listed by average contract value per season (counting only the money included in the comp formula), from highest to lowest. I’ve labeled any player with a contract value of $670,000 per season or less as NQ, for non-qualifier. I’ve labeled any player with a contract value between $765,000 and $895,000 per season as a “low bubble” player, meaning that there might be a chance of that player qualifying, depending on his playing time and any “postseason honors.” (No player signed a contract valued at more than $670,000 per season but less than $765,000 per season.) Any player who signed a contract valued between $900,000 and $975,000 per season is listed as a “high bubble” player, meaning that the player might not qualify if he doesn’t play enough this season.

Lost –
DE Antonio Smith, CB Eric Green, RB Terrelle Smith, LB Monty Beisel (low bubble), RB J.J. Arrington (cut)
Signed – CB Bryant McFadden, RB Jason Wright (high bubble)

Lost –
CB Dominique Foxworth, LB Michael Boley, LB Keith Brooking, DT Grady Jackson
Signed – LB Mike Peterson, C Brett Romberg (high bubble)

Lost –
LB Bart Scott, C Jason Brown, S Jim Leonhard, QB Kyle Boller, CB Corey Ivy (low bubble), FB Lorenzo Neal (low bubble), WR Terrance Copper (NQ)
Signed – CB Dominique Foxworth, C Matt Birk, CB Chris Carr, TE L.J. Smith

Lost –
CB Jabari Greer, LB Angelo Crowell, C Duke Preston (high bubble)
Signed – C Geoff Hangartner, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Dominic Rhodes, G Seth McKinney (NQ), LB Patrick Thomas (NQ), DE Tony Hargrove (NQ)

Lost –
C Geoff Hangartner, T Frank Omiyale, WR Mark Jones (high bubble), LB Adam Seward (NQ)
Signed – none

Lost –
T John St. Clair, S Brandon McGowan (low bubble)
Signed – T Frank Omiyale, S Josh Bullocks

Lost –
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, T Stacy Andrews, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, G Eric Ghiaciuc (NQ)
Signed – WR Laveranues Coles, QB J.T. O’Sullivan, DT Tank Johnson (NQ)

Lost –
S Sean Jones, LB Andra Davis, RB Jason Wright (high bubble), G Scott Young (cut), TE Darnell Dinkins (low bubble), G Seth McKinney (NQ), CB Travis Daniels (NQ)
Signed – LB Eric Barton, T John St. Clair, DE C.J. Mosley, T Floyd Womack (high bubble), CB Corey Ivy (low bubble), CB Hank Poteat (low bubble)

Lost –
DE Chris Canty, LB Kevin Burnett, LB Zach Thomas, G Joe Berger (high bubble), DT Tank Johnson (NQ), S Keith Davis (NQ)
Signed – DT Igor Olshansky, LB Keith Brooking, S Gerald Sensabaugh

Lost –
CB Karl Paymah, QB Patrick Ramsey (low bubble)
Signed – CB Andre Goodman, S Brian Dawkins, QB Chris Simms, CB Renaldo Hill, WR Jabar Gaffney, NT Ronald Fields, DT Darrell Reid, RB Correll Buckhalter, LB Andra Davis, LS Lonie Paxton, RB LaMont Jordan, T Brandon Gorin (NQ), RB J.J. Arrington (cut), G Scott Young (cut)

Lost –
NT Shaun Cody, QB Dan Orlovsky, RB Moran Norris, TE John Owens (high bubble), LB Paris Lenon (low bubble), WR Shaun McDonald (NQ)
Signed – CB Phillip Buchanon, WR Bryant Johnson, DT Grady Jackson, CB Eric King, RB Maurice Morris, T Daniel Loper, RB Terrelle Smith, LB Cody Spencer (NQ), TE Will Heller (NQ)

Lost –
DT Colin Cole
Signed – C Duke Preston (high bubble)

Lost –
S C.C. Brown, CB DeMarcus Faggins, LS Bryan Pittman (NQ)
Signed – DE Antonio Smith, QB Dan Orlovsky, NT Shaun Cody, OL Adrian Jones (NQ)

Lost –
DT Darrell Reid, RB Dominic Rhodes, P Hunter Smith (low bubble), CB Keiwan Ratliff (NQ)
Signed – LB Adam Seward (NQ)

Lost –
LB Mike Peterson, S Gerald Sensabaugh, T Khalif Barnes, S Pierson Prioleau (low bubble)
Signed – T Tra Thomas, S Sean Considine

Lost –
LB Patrick Thomas (NQ), OL Adrian Jones (NQ)
Signed – LB Zach Thomas, G Mike Goff, WR Bobby Engram, LB Monty Beisel (low bubble), WR Terrance Copper (NQ), G Eric Ghiaciuc (NQ), CB Travis Daniels (NQ), TE Sean Ryan (NQ)

Lost –
CB Andre Goodman, CB Renaldo Hill, C Al Johnson (high bubble)
Signed – C Jake Grove, CB Eric Green, G Joe Berger (high bubble)

Lost –
C Matt Birk, S Darren Sharper, T Marcus Johnson (NQ)
Signed – CB Karl Paymah

Lost –
WR Jabar Gaffney, FB Heath Evans, LS Lonie Paxton, RB LaMont Jordan, LB Larry Izzo (low bubble)
Signed – C Al Johnson (high bubble), LB Paris Lenon (low bubble), S Brandon McGowan (low bubble), DT Damane Duckett (cut)

Lost –
S Josh Bullocks
Signed – CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper, FB Heath Evans, TE Darnell Dinkins (low bubble), S Pierson Prioleau (low bubble), C Nick Leckey (NQ), DE Tony Hargrove (NQ)

Lost –
RB Derrick Ward, S James Butler, DE Renaldo Wynn (low bubble)
Signed – DE Chris Canty, LB Michael Boley, DT Rocky Bernard, S C.C. Brown

Lost –
WR Laveranues Coles, LB Eric Barton, DE C.J. Mosley, K Mike Nugent, CB Hank Poteat (low bubble), LB Cody Spencer (NQ)
Signed – LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard, CB Donald Strickland, LB Larry Izzo (low bubble), DT Howard Green (NQ)

Lost –
C Jake Grove, S Rashad Baker (high bubble)
Signed – T Khalif Barnes, QB Jeff Garcia, FB Lorenzo Neal (low bubble), T Marcus Johnson (NQ), DT Ryan Boschetti (NQ), S Keith Davis (NQ)

Lost –
S Brian Dawkins, T Tra Thomas, RB Correll Buckhalter, TE L.J. Smith, S Sean Considine
Signed – T Stacy Andrews, S Sean Jones, RB Leonard Weaver, S Rashad Baker (high bubble)

Lost –
CB Bryant McFadden, WR Nate Washington, QB Byron Leftwich, T Marvel Smith
Signed – WR Shaun McDonald (NQ), CB Keiwan Ratliff (NQ)

Lost –
DT Igor Olshansky, G Mike Goff, LB Marques Harris (NQ)
Signed – LB Kevin Burnett

Lost –
WR Bryant Johnson, NT Ronald Fields, QB J.T. O’Sullivan, CB Donald Strickland, TE Billy Bajema (low bubble), TE Sean Ryan (NQ), DT Damane Duckett (cut)
Signed – WR Brandon Jones, RB Moran Norris, DE Demetric Evans, T Marvel Smith, LB Marques Harris (NQ)

Lost –
DT Rocky Bernard, RB Maurice Morris, RB Leonard Weaver, WR Bobby Engram, T Floyd Womack (high bubble), TE Will Heller (NQ), DT Howard Green (NQ)
Signed – WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, DT Colin Cole, TE John Owens (high bubble), LS Bryan Pittman (NQ)

Lost –
C Brett Romberg (high bubble), C Nick Leckey (NQ), T Brandon Gorin (NQ)
Signed – C Jason Brown, S James Butler, QB Kyle Boller, TE Billy Bajema (low bubble)

Lost –
CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Jovan Haye, QB Jeff Garcia
Signed – RB Derrick Ward, LB Angelo Crowell, K Mike Nugent, QB Byron Leftwich

Lost –
DT Albert Haynesworth, WR Brandon Jones, QB Chris Simms, CB Chris Carr, CB Eric King, T Daniel Loper
Signed – WR Nate Washington, DT Jovan Haye, CB DeMarcus Faggins, WR Mark Jones (high bubble), QB Patrick Ramsey (low bubble)

Lost –
DE Demetric Evans, DT Ryan Boschetti (NQ)
Signed – DT Albert Haynesworth, DE Renaldo Wynn (low bubble), P Hunter Smith (low bubble)

It’s still far too early to determine which teams will get comp picks in which rounds, because any team’s situation could change if a qualifying player is released, traded, benched, injured, etc. But the list above provides a starting point for determining which teams are more likely to receive comp picks. Pittsburgh, for example, with four players lost who could qualify and no players signed who are likely to qualify, stands to receive up to four comp picks in 2010. On the other hand, teams such as Denver, St. Louis, New Orleans, Kansas City and Washington aren’t likely to receive any comp picks.

Remaining UFAs

Below is a list of the remaining UFAs. If any of them received a June 1 tender, they would be included in the formula if they sign with a new team by July 22.

Arizona – Scott Peters, Jerame Tuman, Wayne Gandy

Atlanta – Lawyer Milloy, Marcus Pollard

Baltimore – Lorenzo Neal, Chad Slaughter, Matt Stover, Daniel Wilcox

Buffalo – Melvin Fowler, Teddy Lehman, J.P. Losman, Jason Whittle

Carolina – Donte Curry, Jason Kyle, Darwin Walker

Chicago – Mike Brown, Rex Grossman
Chicago – Brandon Lloyd, Darrell McClover, Fred Miller, Cameron Worrell

Cincinnati – Jamar Fletcher, John Thornton

Cleveland – Lennie Friedman, Kris Griffin, Daven Holly, Willie McGinest, Shantee Orr

Dallas – Brooks Bollinger, Carlos Polk

Denver – Tatum Bell, Ebenezer Ekuban, Darrell Jackson, Marlon McCree, Tom Nalen, Michael Pittman, Edell Shepherd, Nate Webster

Detroit – Rudi Johnson, Andy McCollum, Langston Moore, Ryan Nece, Corey Smith, Stanley Wilson

Green Bay – Mark Tauscher

Houston – Mark Bruener, Scott Jackson, Cecil Sapp, Jimmy Williams, Jeff Zgonina

Indianapolis – Josh Thomas

Jacksonville – Chris Naeole, Reggie Williams

Kansas City – Jason Babin, Rocky Boiman, Oliver Celestin

Miami – Tab Perry, Derek Smith

Minnesota – Kenderick Allen, Michael Boulware, Napoleon Harris, Dontarrious Thomas, Ellis Wyms

N.Y. Giants – John Carney, Jerome McDougle, R.W. McQuarters, Grey Ruegamer, Rich Scanlon, Amani Toomer, Anthony Wright

N.Y. Jets – Jesse Chatman, Ty Law, J.R. Reed

New England – Rosevelt Colvin, Rodney Harrison, Deltha O’Neal, Lewis Sanders, Junior Seau, Barry Stokes

New Orleans – Mark Campbell, Aaron Glenn, Martin Gramatica, Terrence Holt, Antwan Lake, Michael Lehan, Matt Lehr, James Reed, Aaron Stecker

Oakland – Drew Carter, Ashley Lelie, Marques Tuiasosopo

Philadelphia – Jon Runyan

Pittsburgh – Mitch Berger, Orpheus Roye

San Diego – Jeremy Newberry

San Francisco – DeShaun Foster, Roderick Green, Jamie Martin

Seattle – Charlie Frye, Chris Gray, Wesly Mallard, Steve McKinney, Jeff Robinson, Koren Robinson

St. Louis – Fakhir Brown, Jason Craft, Anthony Davis, La’Roi Glover, Dante Hall, Dane Looker, Ricky Manning, Travis Minor, Rob Petitti, Gary Stills, Cory Withrow

Tampa Bay – Kevin Carter, Patrick Chukwurah

Tennessee – Reynaldo Hill, Justin McCareins, Tyrone Poole

Washington – Khary Campbell, Jason Fabini, Mike Green, Pete Kendall

In an upcoming post (or posts), I’ll take a look at the situation for some teams in regard to the 2010 comp picks. As always, any comments, questions or corrections are welcome.

(EDIT: Updated to include Adrian Jones, Tony Hargrove and Lorenzo Neal signings.)