Tuesday, March 17, 2009

A review of last year's projections

While I'm waiting for this year's compensatory picks to be announced (most likely next Monday), I thought I'd show how my projections last year compared to the actual comp picks that were awarded by the NFL.

To see my projections for LAST YEAR, you can click on one of these links or just Google "AdamJT13" and "2008 compensatory" --



As I mentioned in this year's projections, I got 25 correct and was off by one round on four more.

The chart below shows how my projections compared to the actual comp picks. Those shaded green are the ones I had in the correct round. Those shaded yellow were the ones I missed by one round (three of which I had indicated were possible, as highlighted in green type). And the blue lines show where I had the order correct for the picks I had going in the correct round.

(Click for full-size image.)

The three picks I missed were Atlanta's third-round pick, Miami's seventh-round pick and St. Louis' net-value pick at the end of the seventh round. Instead, I had projected a seventh for Indianapolis, a net-value pick for Atlanta and a non-compensatory pick for Miami. Even though I projected that Miami would get a seventh-rounder and Miami did get a seventh-rounder, I don't count that as a correct pick, because it was a different type of pick than I projected.

Although I missed Atlanta's third-round pick, I did say in my projections that it was possible. I had Marcus Wilkins listed as a bubble player, and I projected him to qualify for the comp picks equation, which gave them an equal number of qualifying players signed and lost, making them eligible for only a net-value comp pick at the end of the seventh round. However, I did say, "If Marcus Wilkins does not qualify, Atlanta would receive a third-round comp pick for Patrick Kerney instead of a net-value comp pick in the seventh round. The third-round comp pick for Kerney would be between Cincinnati’s pick for Steinbach and Baltimore’s pick for Thomas." Wilkins did not qualify, and Atlanta's pick did indeed fall between the third-round picks given to Cincinnati and Baltimore. So my only mistake was not hitting the correct cutoff point for the minimum value needed to qualify.

The same mistake is why I missed Miami's seventh-round pick, athough I again had said it was possible. This time, the bubble players involved were Chris Liewinski and Mike Doss. I had projected that both of them would qualify, and that Indianapolis would receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss. But neither of them qualified. In my projections, I said, "If neither Chris Liewinski nor Mike Doss qualify and Vinny Ciurciu does qualify, Miami would get a seventh-round comp pick for Jeff Zgonina between Chicago’s pick for Justin Gage and Cincinnati’s pick for Anthony Wright, Indianapolis would not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Doss, and Miami would keep its non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round." Ciurciu did qualify, and Miami's seventh-round comp pick for Zgonina fell right where I projected it. Miami did not get a non-compensatory pick at the end of the seventh round because 32 picks were awarded, and I mentioned in my projections that if the NFL awarded more comp picks than I had projected, the lowest picks in my projection would not be awarded.

The final pick I missed was the net-value pick for St. Louis. I didn't list St. Louis' players signed and lost in my projections because I didn't project a pick for the Rams. I had the Rams signing three qualifying players (Drew Bennett, Chris Draft and Todd Johnson) and losing three qualifying players (Kevin Curtis, Travis Fisher and Shaun McDonald), but I didn't have the difference in their combined values being enough to warrant a net-value comp pick. The NFL said the difference was enough. In this year's projections, I said the difference in net values for the net-value picks I projected for Detroit and Arizona would be the smallest of any net-value comp pick in the past six years. But after re-examining St. Louis' net-value pick that I missed last year, the difference for the Rams' players signed and lost appears to have been even smaller. That makes me feel more confident about my projections for Detroit and Arizona this year, but if neither of them qualify for a comp pick this year, it means I'll have to do a little more digging to figure out why.

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