The NFL announced the compensatory picks this afternoon. I got 26 correct this year, with almost all of them coming in the order I projected. I was off by one round on three more, all of which I said were possible. I barely missed my goal of 30 correct or within one round, but I had more picks correct and fewer off by one round than I expected, so I'm fairly pleased.
I missed two seventh-rounders, with the NFL awarding picks to Jacksonville and Cincinnati (both of which I said would happen if Aaron Glenn and Alex Stepanovich qualified, and they did qualify). Seattle didn't get one of the seventh-rounders I projected because Keary Colbert wound up qualifying (I explained his situation in my original post). Detroit didn't end up getting a net-value pick as I projected, so I'll have to re-examine the players involved there. It was a close call anyway, so it's not a big surprise.
The one surprise that I can't explain is the Steelers getting only a fifth-round pick after losing two players (Alan Faneca and Clark Haggans) and signing one (Mewelde Moore). Haggans and Moore had seventh-round values and should have canceled out each other. Faneca played 99 percent of the snaps, made the Pro Bowl and got a huge contract ($7.8 million per season, plus a little more that doesn't count in the equation). He clearly had a third-round value, so I'm curious about why the Steelers got a fifth. Hopefully the media in Pittsburgh will look into it and get an answer.I'll provide a little more analysis later. In the meantime, here are the 2009 comp picks and the players signed and lost by each team that got a true comp pick:
THIRD ROUND
New England
Cincinnati
Chicago
NY Giants
FOURTH ROUND
San Diego
San Diego
Tennessee
Indianapolis
FIFTH ROUND
Pittsburgh
New England
San Francisco
Dallas
Tennessee
SIXTH ROUND
Tennessee
New England
Dallas
Cincinnati
SEVENTH ROUND
Tennessee
Washington
San Francisco
Seattle
Chicago
Seattle
Seattle
Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Chicago
Cincinnati
Jacksonville
Arizona (net value)
Detroit (non-compensatory)
Kansas City (non-compensatory)
ARIZONA
Lost:Bryant Johnson, Calvin Pace, Keydrick Vincent
Signed: Clark Haggans, Travis LaBoy, Bryan Robinson
CHICAGO
Lost: Brendon Ayanbadejo, Bernard Berrian, John Gilmore
CINCINNATI
Lost: Landon Johnson, Bryan Robinson, Justin Smith, Alex Stepanovich, Madieu Williams
Signed: Antwan Odom
DALLAS
Lost: Julius Jones, Jacques Reeves
INDIANAPOLIS
Lost: Jake Scott
JACKSONVILLE
Lost: Terry Cousin, Aaron Glenn, Sammy Knight, Bobby McCray, Ernest Wilford
Signed: Drayton Florence, Cleo Lemon, Jerry Porter
NEW ENGLAND
Lost: Randall Gay, Asante Samuel, Donte’ Stallworth
NY GIANTS
Lost: Kawika Mitchell, Reggie Torbor, Gibril Wilson
Signed: Danny Clark, Sammy Knight
PITTSBURGH
Lost: Alan Faneca, Clark Haggans
Signed: Mewelde Moore
SAN DIEGO
Lost: Drayton Florence, Michael Turner
SAN FRANCISCO
Lost: Marques Douglas, Kwame Harris, Maurice Hicks, Justin Smiley
Signed: Bryant Johnson, Justin Smith
SEATTLE
Lost: Kevin Bentley, Josh Brown, Chuck Darby, D.J. Hackett, Niko Koutouvides, Ellis Wyms
Signed: Keary Colbert (acquired via trade from Denver), T.J. Duckett, Julius Jones
TENNESSEE
Lost: Jacob Bell, Chris Brown, Ben Hartsock, Travis LaBoy, Antwan Odom, Randy Starks
Signed: Jake Scott
WASHINGTON
Lost: Mark Brunell
To see the projections I posted 13 days ago, click here.
13 comments:
I was wondering if perhaps there's some clause about being Superbowl Champions as part of the secret formula? Something that knocks down your level of compensation if won the SB? I can't think of anything else really. But you might be able to go back and check and see if any Superbowl winning team has ever gotten more than a 5th rounder in compensation??
That's the first thing I checked into when I saw the comp picks. But the Colts won the Super Bowl in February 2007, then got a third-round compensatory pick that March. And the Patriots won the Super Bowl in February 2005, then got a third-round comp pick that March.
So unless it's a new rule inserted during the past two years, the Steelers getting just a fifth-round pick doesn't have anything to do with them winning the Super Bowl.
could it have anything to do with overvaluing Mewelde Moore's performance for some playing time factor?
Does Mewelde Moore signing a 3 year contract while Clark Haggans only signing a one year contract, have any effect on the Steelers only getting a 5th round comp pick?
Is the Steelers issue because they signed Fox last year?
http://news.steelers.com/team/player/87524/
You said Colbert may count against the Seahawks, but isn't this about FA signings and not trades for draft picks?? Seattle already gave Denver a 5th round pick for Colbert, so why do we lose another pick from that transaction??
Regarding the Steelers' signing of Keyaron Fox, the NFL identified which players were included in the equation for Pittsburgh, and Fox was not one of them. The only players involved were Alan Faneca, Clark Haggans and Mewelde Moore.
And Kryten, the NFL said Colbert did count as a player added by the Seahawks. I didn't project him to count because he played so little when he was in Seattle, but I was wrong. If players acquired via trades didn't count at all, teams could manipulate the system by having others team sign players for them, then acquiring them in trades.
Nothing about Mewelde Moore should cause the Steelers' comp pick to be in the fifth round. His value clearly falls in the range of a seventh-round pick, and he cancels out the loss of Clark Haggans.
And to answer Jom's question, contract length does not seem to matter at all.
Thanks for your response Adam. Your work has made its way far and wide in football forums.
I still don't think the NFL is correct about Colbert. Kellen Winslow was traded to the Bucs around the same time last year, and he didn't count as a FA signing. Colbert never was a FA. He was on the Broncos roster and Seattle acquired him for a 5th rnd pick. Why would he count against Seattle but Winslow didn't count against TB?? Sea/Den was a two team trade that did not involve any free agents.
Could it be they counted Billy McMullen-- the WR Seattle got from the 'Skins??
Again, thanks. I'm just trying to figure this out-- not be a pain.
Colbert was a UFA during the free-agency period last offseason, which is why he qualifies for the equation. His contract with Carolina expired, he became a UFA, and he signed with Denver on March 3 of last year. Even though he was traded by the Broncos, he still met all of the criteria necessary to qualify.
McMullen does not qualify. He was never a UFA during free agency. He spent last offseason with the Redskins, then was cut in late August. The Seahawks signed him in September.
Here is your answer Adam...According to Dale Lolley.
http://nflfromthesidelines.blogspot.com/2009/03/compensatory-pick-scam-solved.html
You can't receive anything higher than a 5th rounder for a 10 year or more veteran. Faneca has 12 years of service.
The Pitt Post gazette is stating that if a player is in the league 10 or more years the compensation can be no higher than a 5th. Obscure rule.
I saw the reports out of Pittsburgh and posted about the 10-year rule yesterday --
http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/possible-explanation-for-faneca-pick.html
I've also found other times when the 10-year rule has been used --
http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/ten-year-rule-has-been-used-before.html
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