Monday, March 23, 2009

NFL announces comp picks

The NFL announced the compensatory picks this afternoon. I got 26 correct this year, with almost all of them coming in the order I projected. I was off by one round on three more, all of which I said were possible. I barely missed my goal of 30 correct or within one round, but I had more picks correct and fewer off by one round than I expected, so I'm fairly pleased.

I missed two seventh-rounders, with the NFL awarding picks to Jacksonville and Cincinnati (both of which I said would happen if Aaron Glenn and Alex Stepanovich qualified, and they did qualify). Seattle didn't get one of the seventh-rounders I projected because Keary Colbert wound up qualifying (I explained his situation in my original post). Detroit didn't end up getting a net-value pick as I projected, so I'll have to re-examine the players involved there. It was a close call anyway, so it's not a big surprise.

The one surprise that I can't explain is the Steelers getting only a fifth-round pick after losing two players (Alan Faneca and Clark Haggans) and signing one (Mewelde Moore). Haggans and Moore had seventh-round values and should have canceled out each other. Faneca played 99 percent of the snaps, made the Pro Bowl and got a huge contract ($7.8 million per season, plus a little more that doesn't count in the equation). He clearly had a third-round value, so I'm curious about why the Steelers got a fifth. Hopefully the media in Pittsburgh will look into it and get an answer.

I'll provide a little more analysis later. In the meantime, here are the 2009 comp picks and the players signed and lost by each team that got a true comp pick:


THIRD ROUND

New England

Cincinnati

Chicago

NY Giants


FOURTH ROUND

San Diego

San Diego

Tennessee

Indianapolis


FIFTH ROUND

Pittsburgh

New England

San Francisco

Dallas

Tennessee


SIXTH ROUND

Tennessee

New England

Dallas

Cincinnati


SEVENTH ROUND

Tennessee

Washington

San Francisco

Seattle

Chicago

Seattle

Seattle

Cincinnati

Jacksonville

Chicago

Cincinnati

Jacksonville

Arizona (net value)

Detroit (non-compensatory)

Kansas City (non-compensatory)


ARIZONA

Lost:Bryant Johnson, Calvin Pace, Keydrick Vincent

Signed: Clark Haggans, Travis LaBoy, Bryan Robinson

CHICAGO

Lost: Brendon Ayanbadejo, Bernard Berrian, John Gilmore


CINCINNATI

Lost: Landon Johnson, Bryan Robinson, Justin Smith, Alex Stepanovich, Madieu Williams

Signed: Antwan Odom


DALLAS

Lost: Julius Jones, Jacques Reeves


INDIANAPOLIS

Lost: Jake Scott


JACKSONVILLE

Lost: Terry Cousin, Aaron Glenn, Sammy Knight, Bobby McCray, Ernest Wilford

Signed: Drayton Florence, Cleo Lemon, Jerry Porter


NEW ENGLAND

Lost: Randall Gay, Asante Samuel, Donte’ Stallworth


NY GIANTS

Lost: Kawika Mitchell, Reggie Torbor, Gibril Wilson

Signed: Danny Clark, Sammy Knight


PITTSBURGH

Lost: Alan Faneca, Clark Haggans

Signed: Mewelde Moore


SAN DIEGO

Lost: Drayton Florence, Michael Turner


SAN FRANCISCO

Lost: Marques Douglas, Kwame Harris, Maurice Hicks, Justin Smiley

Signed: Bryant Johnson, Justin Smith


SEATTLE

Lost: Kevin Bentley, Josh Brown, Chuck Darby, D.J. Hackett, Niko Koutouvides, Ellis Wyms

Signed: Keary Colbert (acquired via trade from Denver), T.J. Duckett, Julius Jones


TENNESSEE

Lost: Jacob Bell, Chris Brown, Ben Hartsock, Travis LaBoy, Antwan Odom, Randy Starks

Signed: Jake Scott


WASHINGTON

Lost: Mark Brunell




To see the projections I posted 13 days ago, click here.

13 comments:

Ben Morgan said...

I was wondering if perhaps there's some clause about being Superbowl Champions as part of the secret formula? Something that knocks down your level of compensation if won the SB? I can't think of anything else really. But you might be able to go back and check and see if any Superbowl winning team has ever gotten more than a 5th rounder in compensation??

AdamJT13 said...

That's the first thing I checked into when I saw the comp picks. But the Colts won the Super Bowl in February 2007, then got a third-round compensatory pick that March. And the Patriots won the Super Bowl in February 2005, then got a third-round comp pick that March.

So unless it's a new rule inserted during the past two years, the Steelers getting just a fifth-round pick doesn't have anything to do with them winning the Super Bowl.

toonsterwu said...

could it have anything to do with overvaluing Mewelde Moore's performance for some playing time factor?

Jom112 said...

Does Mewelde Moore signing a 3 year contract while Clark Haggans only signing a one year contract, have any effect on the Steelers only getting a 5th round comp pick?

Anonymous said...

Is the Steelers issue because they signed Fox last year?

http://news.steelers.com/team/player/87524/

Kryten said...

You said Colbert may count against the Seahawks, but isn't this about FA signings and not trades for draft picks?? Seattle already gave Denver a 5th round pick for Colbert, so why do we lose another pick from that transaction??

AdamJT13 said...

Regarding the Steelers' signing of Keyaron Fox, the NFL identified which players were included in the equation for Pittsburgh, and Fox was not one of them. The only players involved were Alan Faneca, Clark Haggans and Mewelde Moore.

And Kryten, the NFL said Colbert did count as a player added by the Seahawks. I didn't project him to count because he played so little when he was in Seattle, but I was wrong. If players acquired via trades didn't count at all, teams could manipulate the system by having others team sign players for them, then acquiring them in trades.

AdamJT13 said...

Nothing about Mewelde Moore should cause the Steelers' comp pick to be in the fifth round. His value clearly falls in the range of a seventh-round pick, and he cancels out the loss of Clark Haggans.

And to answer Jom's question, contract length does not seem to matter at all.

Kryten said...

Thanks for your response Adam. Your work has made its way far and wide in football forums.

I still don't think the NFL is correct about Colbert. Kellen Winslow was traded to the Bucs around the same time last year, and he didn't count as a FA signing. Colbert never was a FA. He was on the Broncos roster and Seattle acquired him for a 5th rnd pick. Why would he count against Seattle but Winslow didn't count against TB?? Sea/Den was a two team trade that did not involve any free agents.
Could it be they counted Billy McMullen-- the WR Seattle got from the 'Skins??
Again, thanks. I'm just trying to figure this out-- not be a pain.

AdamJT13 said...

Colbert was a UFA during the free-agency period last offseason, which is why he qualifies for the equation. His contract with Carolina expired, he became a UFA, and he signed with Denver on March 3 of last year. Even though he was traded by the Broncos, he still met all of the criteria necessary to qualify.

McMullen does not qualify. He was never a UFA during free agency. He spent last offseason with the Redskins, then was cut in late August. The Seahawks signed him in September.

drinkyourmilkshake said...

Here is your answer Adam...According to Dale Lolley.

http://nflfromthesidelines.blogspot.com/2009/03/compensatory-pick-scam-solved.html

You can't receive anything higher than a 5th rounder for a 10 year or more veteran. Faneca has 12 years of service.

Anonymous said...

The Pitt Post gazette is stating that if a player is in the league 10 or more years the compensation can be no higher than a 5th. Obscure rule.

AdamJT13 said...

I saw the reports out of Pittsburgh and posted about the 10-year rule yesterday --

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/possible-explanation-for-faneca-pick.html

I've also found other times when the 10-year rule has been used --

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/ten-year-rule-has-been-used-before.html