One question I'm frequently asked is whether NFL teams know the formula that is used to determine the compensatory draft picks — and in this instance, by "formula," I mean all of the rules for qualification, the rules for determining players' values, the rules for determining the rounds for every pick and any special rules that would affect the comp picks.
Some people assume that the teams have been given the rules or even the entire formula and that it remains a secret only to those of us in the general public. However, although some teams probably have much of the formula figured out, it's obvious that many teams do not know how the NFL determines the comp picks. Every year, we see examples of teams hoping to get certain comp picks that they don't end up getting and examples of teams expressing surprise or confusion after the comp picks are awarded.
This year, Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said he expected his team to receive three comp picks. An article on the Falcons' Web site quoted Dimitroff as saying, "That was one of the reasons that we were able to decide on doing that Tony Gonzalez trade, because we knew that we were going to be set up to possibly guard our three compensatory draft picks with some of the free agents we lost. As it stands right now, I’m thinking we possibly will get three compensatory picks, given the play of Domonique Foxworth, Michael Boley and Keith Brooking. Those are the three that I think are going to factor in strongly into our compensatory acquisitions.” In addition, The Atlanta Journal Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter reported that Dimitroff said that Mike Peterson would not count as a player signed by the Falcons. When the comp picks were announced, however, the Falcons received only two of them, and Peterson did count in the formula.
On the Jacksonville Jaguars' Web site, senior editor Vic Ketchman reported that Jaguars GM Gene Smith was "hopeful of receiving two" comp picks this year. The Jaguars, who lost three qualifying players and signed two, received only one comp pick.
And in an article on the Cincinnati Bengals' Web site, team president Mike Brown acknowledged that his team went years without knowing how to get comp picks. "Over the whole history of compensatory choices, we went many years without any and being slow to figure things out," Brown said. "We finally did and in recent years we’ve been the recipient of them."
We could find many more examples from previous seasons, but clearly, whatever information the NFL teams have been given regarding comp picks is not sufficient for all of them to know how many picks they'll be getting — or even if they'll be getting any — let alone the placement of those picks.
For teams to know what comp picks will be awarded, they have to try to project them based on whatever information they have. As Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson found out, though, that is no easy task. Thompson was quoted in an article at ESPNMilwaukee.com as saying that he and former GM Ron Wolf became so frustrated when they tried to project the comp picks that they gave up on it.
“A long time ago, I decided I wasn’t going to try to predict,” Thompson said. “Ron and I used to try to figure it out, and it would wind up making him really mad and me sort of mad. Some people think they have cracked the code, and that’s OK, (but) I don’t have time for that. Somebody will tell us.”
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Monday, March 22, 2010
Comparing 2010 projection to the actual comp picks
Below is a chart showing a comparison of my projections to the comp picks the NFL awarded today. Picks shaded green are those that I projected in the correct round, and picks shaded yellow are those on which I was off by one round. Although I correctly projected Tampa Bay to get a seventh-round pick, I projected it to be a non-compensatory pick, but it turned out to be a net-value pick, so I'm not counting it as a correct pick. I'm also not counting Miami's net-value pick in the seventh round as being off by one round, even though I projected the Dolphins to receive a sixth-round pick.
(Click on the image to see a larger version.)
In the third round, I had the picks for Tennessee and Cincinnati switched. I'll try to figure out why Albert Haynesworth's contract value used in the formula was so low.
In the fourth round, Cincinnati got a pick for Stacy Andrews because Laveranues Coles did not count in the equation. Although I projected Coles to count, I did say that the Bengals probably would get a fourth for Andrews if Coles did not count.
In the fifth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I missed the next three because the cutoff point for the fifth round did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. The lower cutoff point bumped the picks for Minnesota and Green Bay into the fifth round and gave San Diego a fifth for Igor Olshansky instead of a seventh for Mike Goff, as I explained in my projections.
In the sixth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I again missed the next three because the cutoff point did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. In addition, Miami did not get the sixth I projected, because Joe Berger qualified for the equation and I did not project him to qualify.
In the seventh round, I again missed several because players qualified who were not projected to qualify (namely Mark Jones, Hunter Smith, Larry Izzo and Brandon McGowan). In addition, it appears that I need to change the playing time I use for special-teamers (in this case, Hunter Smith and Lonie Paxton). I missed the net-value pick for Miami because Berger qualified, and I missed the net-value pick for Tampa Bay because Angelo Crowell did not, possibly because he was on Injured Reserve for every game of the only season of his contract.
Using the correct cutoff points and the correct playing time for special-teamers, I've been able to recreate the order of all but the first two comp picks of the third round. Figuring out why Tennessee's third-round comp pick for Haynesworth was not the highest pick should help me learn more about what elements in a contract are not included in the formula.
I'll post more as I continue to analyze this year's comp picks.
(Click on the image to see a larger version.)
In the third round, I had the picks for Tennessee and Cincinnati switched. I'll try to figure out why Albert Haynesworth's contract value used in the formula was so low.
In the fourth round, Cincinnati got a pick for Stacy Andrews because Laveranues Coles did not count in the equation. Although I projected Coles to count, I did say that the Bengals probably would get a fourth for Andrews if Coles did not count.
In the fifth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I missed the next three because the cutoff point for the fifth round did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. The lower cutoff point bumped the picks for Minnesota and Green Bay into the fifth round and gave San Diego a fifth for Igor Olshansky instead of a seventh for Mike Goff, as I explained in my projections.
In the sixth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I again missed the next three because the cutoff point did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. In addition, Miami did not get the sixth I projected, because Joe Berger qualified for the equation and I did not project him to qualify.
In the seventh round, I again missed several because players qualified who were not projected to qualify (namely Mark Jones, Hunter Smith, Larry Izzo and Brandon McGowan). In addition, it appears that I need to change the playing time I use for special-teamers (in this case, Hunter Smith and Lonie Paxton). I missed the net-value pick for Miami because Berger qualified, and I missed the net-value pick for Tampa Bay because Angelo Crowell did not, possibly because he was on Injured Reserve for every game of the only season of his contract.
Using the correct cutoff points and the correct playing time for special-teamers, I've been able to recreate the order of all but the first two comp picks of the third round. Figuring out why Tennessee's third-round comp pick for Haynesworth was not the highest pick should help me learn more about what elements in a contract are not included in the formula.
I'll post more as I continue to analyze this year's comp picks.
Looking at the qualifiers and non-qualifiers
To see who officially qualified for the compensatory picks equation this year, click here and scroll down.
As you can tell, the NFL did not include Laveranues Coles in the equation. I suspected that this would happen (click here and scroll to the bottom of the post), but I did not project it because there was no precedent set for disqualifying a player whose contract had voided. (EDIT: Coles' disqualification from the equation was not simply because his "contract was voided last offseason." Many players have qualified after having their contract voided. Coles' voided contract was different, though, because the void was renegotiated into the contract after the end of the final regular season that he played for the Jets. On Feb. 25, 2009, Coles renegotiated his contract to include the void. Two days later, it voided, and he became a true Unrestricted Free Agent. Apparently, and even though the Jets reportedly claimed that Coles would qualify, that method of becoming a true UFA didn't satisfy the requirements for qualification.)
Surprisingly, Angelo Crowell did not qualify, either.
In addition, all four of the players I projected to be just below the qualifying bubble -- Joe Berger, Hunter Smith, Mark Jones and Larry Izzo -- did, in fact qualify. This fact and the fact that several picks ended up one round higher than projected mean that the NFL didn't raise the cutoff points nearly as much as I had projected.
I'll have more analysis later.
UPDATE: Brandon McGowan actually qualified as a player signed by New England, even though his contract value that counts in the formula was only $765,000 per season. I'll try to figure out why.
As you can tell, the NFL did not include Laveranues Coles in the equation. I suspected that this would happen (click here and scroll to the bottom of the post), but I did not project it because there was no precedent set for disqualifying a player whose contract had voided. (EDIT: Coles' disqualification from the equation was not simply because his "contract was voided last offseason." Many players have qualified after having their contract voided. Coles' voided contract was different, though, because the void was renegotiated into the contract after the end of the final regular season that he played for the Jets. On Feb. 25, 2009, Coles renegotiated his contract to include the void. Two days later, it voided, and he became a true Unrestricted Free Agent. Apparently, and even though the Jets reportedly claimed that Coles would qualify, that method of becoming a true UFA didn't satisfy the requirements for qualification.)
Surprisingly, Angelo Crowell did not qualify, either.
In addition, all four of the players I projected to be just below the qualifying bubble -- Joe Berger, Hunter Smith, Mark Jones and Larry Izzo -- did, in fact qualify. This fact and the fact that several picks ended up one round higher than projected mean that the NFL didn't raise the cutoff points nearly as much as I had projected.
I'll have more analysis later.
UPDATE: Brandon McGowan actually qualified as a player signed by New England, even though his contract value that counts in the formula was only $765,000 per season. I'll try to figure out why.
This year's comp picks mystery
Last year, the biggest mystery surrounding the comp picks concerned Alan Faneca and why the Pittsburgh Steelers got only a fifth-round comp pick for him.
This year, the biggest mystery seems to be why Angelo Crowell did not count as a player signed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was a true UFA last offseason, he signed on March 18, and he signed for $2.5 million (plus incentives) for one season. Yes, he spent the entire season on Injured Reserve, but players who were on IR have qualified in the past. Perhaps it is because he signed a one-year contract and spent that season on IR. If that is the case, however, would he also be disqualified from the equation next year if he leaves this offseason? Or could he actually count as a player lost after not counting as a player signed?
Another mystery is how the NFL deemed T.J. Houshmandzadeh's value to be greater than Albert Haynesworth's value, which is the reason that Cincinnati got a higher third-round comp pick than Tennessee. Perhaps a big chunk of the money in Haynesworth's contract doesn't count in the formula. I'll take a closer look and see what I can find.
This year, the biggest mystery seems to be why Angelo Crowell did not count as a player signed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was a true UFA last offseason, he signed on March 18, and he signed for $2.5 million (plus incentives) for one season. Yes, he spent the entire season on Injured Reserve, but players who were on IR have qualified in the past. Perhaps it is because he signed a one-year contract and spent that season on IR. If that is the case, however, would he also be disqualified from the equation next year if he leaves this offseason? Or could he actually count as a player lost after not counting as a player signed?
Another mystery is how the NFL deemed T.J. Houshmandzadeh's value to be greater than Albert Haynesworth's value, which is the reason that Cincinnati got a higher third-round comp pick than Tennessee. Perhaps a big chunk of the money in Haynesworth's contract doesn't count in the formula. I'll take a closer look and see what I can find.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)