AdamJT13

Current Cap Room for All 32 NFL Teams

2012-06-10T16:40:00.000-07:00

In alphabetical order:

In order of cap room:

Four NFL Teams Gain Cap Room from Post-June 1 Releases

2012-06-02T12:46:00.000-07:00

Four NFL teams gained salary cap room today as their "post-June 1" releases finally became official. Although the players had been released weeks ago, the scheduled salary cap numbers for Terence Newman (Dallas), Travelle Wharton (Carolina), Gary Brackett (Indianapolis) and Kevin Boss (Oakland) remained in full on those teams' caps until today. Now, their contracts are treated as if they were released today — their 2012 bonus prorations remain against this year's cap, and all future prorations accelerate into 2013 instead of this year.

Each of these players still counted as part of his team's Top 51 until today. That means that when those players' releases became official, they were each replaced by another player in their team’s Top 51. So, the net gain in cap room for each team is not simply equal to the reduction in the released player's cap charge, because another player's base salary begins counting against the team's cap.

Here's how the cap savings breaks down for each team, along with the dead money charges in 2012 and 2013 for each player:

DALLAS COWBOYS

Terence Newman’s cap charge goes from $8.016 million to $2 million for 2012, with $2 million in dead money left in 2013. Newman is replaced in Dallas’ Top 51 by a player whose base salary is $465,000, giving the Cowboys a net gain of $5.551 million in cap room. That puts Dallas $7,595,361 under the cap.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Travelle Wharton’s cap charge goes from $7,562,882 to $1,862,882, with $1,862,882 in dead money left in 2013. Wharton is replaced in Carolina’s Top 51 by a player whose base salary is $540,000, so the Panthers have a net gain of $5.16 million in cap room and are now $8,383,625 under the cap.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Gary Brackett’s cap charge drops from $7.4 million to $2.4 million, with $4.8 million in dead money for 2013. Brackett is replaced in the Colts’ Top 51 by rookie Josh Chapman, whose base salary is $390,000, giving the Colts a net gain of $4.61 million in cap room. Indianapolis is now $14,953,698 under the cap.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Kevin Boss’s cap charge goes from $4.75 million to $750,000, with $1.5 million in dead money in 2013. Boss is replaced in Oakland’s Top 51 by a player whose base salary is $465,000, so the Raiders’ net gain is $3.535 million in cap room. They are now $3,581,346 under the cap.

The NFL rookie pool and the salary cap

2012-05-02T01:42:00.003-07:00

A lot of people, including many in the media, have a misunderstanding of how the NFL salary cap and rookie pool are intertwined, beyond the misnomer of "a cap within a cap." This post is an attempt to explain exactly how the rookie pool works and how it relates to the cap. (Note: This post is a rewrite of a 2009 post, with all information updated to apply to 2012.)

First, a couple of definitions:

Top 51 Rule: This is explained in Article 13, Section 6, subsection (a)(i) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The rule states, "between the start of the League Year and the first day of the regular playing season, only the following amounts from Paragraph 5 shall be included for players whose Player Contracts are not among the Team’s 51 highest valued Player Contracts, tenders and Offer Sheets (as determined under this Section 6): (1) Any amount that exceeds the Minimum Active/Inactive List Salary for Undrafted Rookie Free Agents; and (2) Any amount that exceeds twice the applicable Minimum Active/Inactive List Salary for all other players."

In simple terms, it means that during the offseason, for any player whose cap number is not among his team's 51 highest cap numbers, his base salary ("Paragraph 5" salary) does not count against the cap. The two exceptions listed above ("any amount that exceeds ...") are not known to have ever come into play, because teams traditionally give undrafted rookies minimum base salaries, and it would be extremely unlikely for a team to have a player outside its Top 51 with a base salary more than twice his applicable minimum.

As an example of how the Top 51 Rule works, consider a team whose 51st-highest cap number for current players (contracts, tenders or offer sheets) is $480,580. The team's next-highest cap number is $475,580, which is for a second-year player with a base salary of $465,000, a signing bonus proration of $5,000 and a standard workout bonus of $5,580. Because this player is outside the hypothetical team's Top 51, his minimum base salary does not count against the cap, but the other $10,580 does. The same thing would apply to the rest of the team's players outside its Top 51: their minimum base salaries would not count against the cap, but everything else would. (All "dead money" also counts against the cap.)

Rookie pool: On a league-wide basis, the rookie pool (described in Article 7 of the CBA) is the total amount of money that can be spent on all rookies, except that the minimum base salaries for undrafted rookies do not count toward the rookie pool. Each team's rookie pool is its portion of the league-wide total and is determined by the number, round and position of the draft choices it uses, plus one-third of the annual limit for signing bonuses given to undrafted rookies. (One-third of the total represents the first-year proration of bonuses on their three-year contracts.)

Basically, the entire first-year cap numbers for all of a team's draft choices must fit into its rookie pool, along with any first-year cap charges for undrafted rookies other than their minimum base salaries. When a team signs a drafted player, his first-year cap number does not have to be equal, or even close to, the rookie pool value of the pick used to select him, as long as the team's combined rookie pool charges for all of its rookies don't exceed its limit.

(NOTE: The 2012 team rookie pool figures that have been reported do not include the undrafted rookie reservation, which is one-third of $76,585 for each team. That means that each team's true rookie pool, as defined by the CBA, is $25,528 higher than the reported figure. Post updated May 13, 2012)

How it all works

Saying that the rookie pool is "a cap within a cap" is a bit of a misnomer because the rookie pool actually is a separate accounting from the salary cap, although rookies count toward both limits. The calculations are different, though, so the amount a rookie counts against the rookie pool isn't necessarily the same as the amount he counts against the salary cap.

When a player is drafted, he automatically is tendered a one-year contract for the rookie minimum base salary (for 2012, that is $390,000). This amount immediately is applied to the team's rookie pool and salary cap. Because most teams have at least 51 players with cap numbers higher than the rookie minimum salary before the draft, the automatic tenders for drafted players won't affect those teams' caps at all. It sometimes is mistakenly reported that teams must have cap room in order to use their draft choices, but that applies only to teams that have fewer than 51 players signed or tendered at the time of the draft. And even then, it applies only to the number of draft choices a team uses until it has 51 players signed or tendered. So, for example, if a team had 49 players signed or tendered before the draft, it would need only $780,000 of cap room in order to make all of its selections. After the first two draftees are automatically tendered, the team would have 51 players signed or tendered, and the rest of the team's draftees would fall outside its 51 highest cap numbers and would not affect its cap.

When a drafted player signs his contract, the team is charged against its salary cap according to the Top 51 Rule, and it is charged against its rookie pool according to the rules in Article 7.

Let's consider a seventh-round draft pick who signs a four-year contract with minimum base salaries and a $44,000 signing bonus and who was selected by a team with its 51st-highest cap number being $480,000 (for a second-year player with a $465,000 base salary). The rookie's first-year cap number would be $401,000, consisting of his $390,000 base salary and his $11,000 bonus proration. Because he was drafted, the entire $401,000 would count against his team's rookie pool, replacing his automatic tender. But because he is below his team's top 51 cap numbers, only his $11,000 bonus proration counts against the salary cap during the offseason.

Now consider a third-round draft pick for the same team. He signs a four-year contract with minimum base salaries and a signing bonus of $700,000. His first-year cap number would be $565,000, consisting of his $310,000 base salary and his $175,000 bonus proration. All $565,000 would count against his team's rookie pool and against his team's salary cap. However, by assuming his place among the team's top 51 cap numbers, he knocks the player with a $480,000 cap number ($465,000 base salary) out of the team's top 51. For that player, his base salary no longer counts against the cap, leaving only the other $15,000 counting against the cap. The net result is that the team's cap room is reduced by only $100,000 — the draftee's $565,000 is charged against the cap, but the second-year player's $465,000 base salary no longer is.

As you can see, as long as his team already has at least 51 players signed or tendered, a draftee's effect on his team's salary cap is far less than his rookie pool charge. Most people forget this when they consider how much cap room must be "set aside" for rookies. You'll often see people say that, for example, if a team has $4 million of cap room and a rookie pool of $5 million, it will need to clear another $1 million from its cap in order to sign all of its draft choices. Of course, if the team already has close to or more than 51 players signed or tendered, that's wrong, because that team's rookies will reduce its salary cap by far less than $5 million, as shown above.

As long as a team has at least 51 players already signed or tendered, it is impossible for its entire rookie class to reduce its cap room by more than its rookie pool minus the amount equal to the minimum rookie salary times the number of draftees signed. For example, if a team with a rookie pool of $5.9 million already has at least 51 players signed or tendered, then signs all 10 of its draftees and any number of undrafted rookies, it is impossible for the team's entire rookie class to reduce its cap room by more than $2 million. That's because the $390,000 base salary of every undrafted rookie and every draftee who doesn't make the team's top 51 won't count against the cap, and every draftee who does make the top 51 will knock another player's base salary of at least $390,000 out of the top 51.

To determine the maximum amount that a team's entire rookie class could reduce its cap room, it is necessary to know how many players it has signed or tendered, how many of its draftees are likely to have first-year cap numbers that qualify for its top 51 and the cap numbers and base salaries for as many players at the bottom of its top 51 as it has draftees who will qualify for the top 51.

If all of that is not known, a reasonable estimate for most teams this season can be made by starting with each team's rookie pool, then subtracting $465,000 for each draft pick in the first four rounds and $390,000 for each draft pick in the fifth, sixth or seventh rounds. For example, a team with a rookie pool of $5 million and one draft pick in each round will use approximately $1.97 million of cap room to sign all of its rookies ($5 million, minus the $1.86 million for the four players displaced in the team's top 51, minus $1.17 million for the three late-round draftees whose base salaries won't count against the cap). Using this method might not be precise for every team, but it will provide a pretty good estimate.

Pick-By-Pick Rookie Pool Figures for 2011

2012-04-26T14:54:00.000-07:00

According to NFL.com, the 2012 Rookie Pool has not yet been determined. (UPDATE: NFL.com has now reported that the league and the NFLPA have reached an agreement on the 2012 Rookie Pool.) Previous reports have indicated that it might be less than in 2011, although the Collective Bargaining Agreement seems to indicate that it must increase by the same percentage as the salary cap. If so, it would rise by just 0.187 percent. These facts likely mean that the 2012 Rookie Pool will be very close to the 2011 Rookie Pool. Thus, it will be possible to project each team's rookie pool for 2012 based on the figures from 2011.

Below are the actual 2011 rookie pool values -- in other words, those players' 2011 cap numbers -- for each of the 2011 draft picks. When available, the 2011 rookie pool allocation number -- the number used by the NFL to set the team-by-team and league-wide limits -- has been included in parentheses. As this shows, many of the 2011 draft picks' rookie pool numbers exactly matched the allocation figure for their respective picks after the allocation numbers were revealed to the teams and agents for the first time. To project a team's 2012 Rookie Pool, these figures can be used for each of the team's draft picks, and $25,000 can be added for undrafted rookies' signing bonus prorations.

FIRST ROUND

1 Cam Newton Panthers $4,004,636

2 Von Miller Broncos $3,818,250

3 Marcell Dareus Bills $3,710,418

4 A.J. Green Bengals $3,579,655 ($3,579,655 allocation)

5 Patrick Peterson Cardinals $3,350,818

6 Julio Jones Falcons $2,942,500

7 Aldon Smith 49ers $2,615,273 ($2,615,273 allocation)

8 Jake Locker Titans $2,288,364

9 Tyron Smith Cowboys $2,272,018

10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars $2,182,118

11 J.J. Watt Texans $2,043,182

12 Christian Ponder Vikings $1,847,036

13 Nick Fairley Lions $1,798,000

14 Robert Quinn Rams $1,715,658 ($1,716,273 allocation)

15 Mike Pouncey Dolphins $1,683,581

16 Ryan Kerrigan Redskins $1,585,508

17 Nate Solder Patriots $1,552,817

18 Corey Liuget Chargers $1,511,954

19 Prince Amukamara Giants $1,487,436

20 Adrian Clayborn Buccaneers $1,492,758 ($1,479,264 allocation)

21 Phil Taylor Browns $1,471,500

22 Anthony Castonzo Colts $1,454,745

23 Danny Watkins Eagles $1,442,900

24 Cameron Jordan Saints $1,405,709

25 James Carpenter Seahawks $1,389,364

26 Jonathan Baldwin Chiefs $1,373,018

27 Jimmy Smith Ravens $1,356,673

28 Mark Ingram Saints $1,348,500

29 Gabe Carimi Bears $1,282,918

30 Muhammad Wilkerson Jets $1,250,000

31 Cameron Heyward Steelers $1,219,096

32 Derek Sherrod Packers $1,200,364

SECOND ROUND

33 Ras-I Dowling Patriots $964,382

34 Aaron Williams Bills $956,209

35 Andy Dalton Bengals $948,036

36 Colin Kaepernick 49ers $931,691 ($931,691 allocation)

37 Jabaal Sheard Browns $925,500

38 Ryan Williams Cardinals $910,442

39 Akeem Ayers Titans $895,731

40 Bruce Carter Cowboys $882,654

41 Jarvis Jenkins Redskins $869,578

42 Brooks Reed Texans $854,867

43 Kyle Rudolph Vikings $841,791

44 Titus Young Lions $829,331

45 Rahim Moore Broncos $808,750

46 Orlando Franklin Broncos $792,000

47 Lance Kendricks Rams $768,437 ($768,236 allocation)

48 Stefan Wisniewki Raiders $751,891

49 Benjamin Ijalana Colts $735,545

50 Marcus Gilchrist Chargers $719,200

51 Da'Quan Bowers Buccaneers $701,025

52 Marvin Austin Giants $686,509

53 Stephen Paea Bears $670,164

54 Jaiquawn Jarrett Eagles $654,318

55 Rodney Hudson Chiefs $637,495

56 Shane Vereen Patriots $629,300

57 Mikel Leshoure Lions $624,396

58 Torrey Smith Ravens $616,224

59 Greg Little Browns $605,000

60 Brandon Harris Texans $599,878

61 Jonas Mouton Chargers $593,340

62 Daniel Thomas Dolphins $588,435

63 Marcus Gilbert Steelers $586,802

64 Randall Cobb Packers $583,531

THIRD ROUND

65 Terrell McClain Panthers $550,826

66 Dontay Moch Bengals $549,394

67 Nate Irving Broncos $548,750

68 Kelvin Sheppard Bills $547,708

69 Robert Housler Cardinals $546,023

70 Justin Houston Chiefs $542,812

71 Demarco Murray Cowboys $540,625

72 Martez Wilson Saints $539,081

73 Stevan Ridley Patriots $537,000

74 Ryan Mallett Patriots $535,969

75 John Moffitt Seahawks $534,375

76 William Rackley Jaguars $529,868

77 Jurrell Casey Titans $529,359

78 Austin Pettis Rams $528,604 ($528,450 allocation)

79 Leonard Hankerson Redskins $526,594

80 Chris Culliver 49ers $524,719 ($524,719 allocation)

81 Demarcus Van Dyke Raiders $522,844

82 Vincent Brown Chargers $521,517

83 Jerrel Jernigan Giants $518,813

84 Mason Foster Buccaneers $506,250

85 Jah Reid Ravens $515,810

86 Allen Bailey Chiefs $513,986

87 Drake Nevis Colts $512,278

88 Johnny Patrick Saints $511,345

89 Shareece Wright Chargers $511,035

90 Curtis Marsh Eagles $510,880

91 Akeem Dent Falcons $510,725

92 Joseph Barksdale Raiders $509,950

93 Chris Conte Bears $508,400

94 Kenrick Ellis Jets $500,000

95 Curtis Brown Steelers $505,300

96 Alex Green Packers $503,750

97 Slone Fua Panthers $501,504

FOURTH ROUND

98 Brandon Hogan Panthers $499,257

99 K.J. Wright Seahawks $496,500

100 Da'Norris Searcy Bills $496,106

101 Clint Boling Bengals $495,362

102 Jordan Cameron Browns $494,350

103 Sam Acho Cardinals $493,607

104 Luke Stocker Buccaneers $493,172

105 Roy Helu Redskins $492,563

106 Christian Ballard Vikings $476,888

107 Kris Durham Seahawks $491,065

108 Quinton Carter Broncos $488,750

109 Colin McCarthy Titans $488,850

110 David Arkin Cowboys $488,400

111 Edmond Gates Dolphins $488,287

112 Greg Salas Rams $487,788 ($487,725 allocation)

113 Chimdi Chekwa Raiders $486,300

114 Cecil Shorts Jaguars $485,845

115 Kendall Hunter 49ers $484,805 ($484,805 allocation)

116 Casey Matthews Eagles $483,716

117 James Brewer Giants $483,023

118 Jalil Brown Chiefs $482,325

119 Delone Carter Colts $481,301

120 Alex Henery Eagles $480,027

121 Chris Prosinski Jaguars $480,027

122 Chris Hairston Bills $478,977

123 Tandon Doss Ravens $478,140

124 Owen Marecic Browns $477,000

125 Taiwan Jones Raiders $476,250

126 Bilal Powell Jets $475,125

127 Rashad Carmichael Texans $474,272

128 Cortez Allen Steelers $472,875

129 Julius Thomas Broncos $471,000

130 Jamie Harper Titans $450,145

131 Davon House Packers $450,145

FIFTH ROUND

132 Kealoha Pilares Panthers $428,878

133 Johnny White Bills $428,400

134 Robert Sands Bengals $428,000

135 Ricky Stanzi Chiefs $427,763

136 Anthony Sherman Cardinals $426,725

137 Buster Skrine Browns $425,500

138 Marcus Cannon Patriots $425,125

139 Brandon Burton Vikings $417,250

140 Gabe Miller Chiefs $424,625

141 D.J. Williams Packers $424,500

142 Karl Klug Titans $423,613

143 Josh Thomas Cowboys $423,200

144 Shiloh Keo Texans $423,000

145 Jacquizz Rodgers Falcons $422,750

146 Dejon Gomes Redskins $422,825

147 Rod Isaac Jaguars $422,790

148 Denarius Moore Raiders $422,513

149 Dion Lewis Eagles $422,220

150 Jason Pinkston Browns $422,000

151 Ahmad Black Buccaneers $421,685

152 T.J. Yates Texans $421,250

153 Jeremy Kerley Jets $421,062

154 Richard Sherman Seahawks $420,606

155 Niles Paul Redskins $420,413

156 Mark Legree Seahawks $419,633

157 Doug Hogue Lions $419,527

158 Jermale Hines Rams $419,167 ($419,125 allocation)

159 Lee Smith Patriots $417,870

160 Nathan Enderle Bears $417,215

161 Julian Vandervele Eagles $416,200

162 Chris Carter Steelers $415,700

163 Daniel Kilgore 49ers $415,075 ($415,075 allocation)

164 Chykie Brown Ravens $411,140

165 Pernell McPhee Ravens $411,140

SIXTH ROUND

166 Lawrence Wilson Panthers $407,205

167 Ryan Whelan Bengals $406,278

168 Demarcus Love Vikings $400,775

169 Chris White Bills $405,150

170 Mistral Raymond Vikings $399,483

171 Quan Sturdivant Cardinals $403,947

172 Brandon Fusco Vikings $398,556

173 Byron Maxwell Seahawks $403,363

174 Charles Clay Dolphins $403,000

175 Byron Stingily Titans $402,625

176 Dwayne Harris Cowboys $402,515

177 Evan Royster Redskins $401,918

178 Aldrick Robinson Redskins $401,550

179 Caleb Schlauderaff Packers $401,450

180 Tyrod Taylor Ravens $401,327

181 Richard Gordon Raiders $401,213

182 Ronald Johnson 49ers $401,055 ($401,055 allocation)

183 Jordan Todman Chargers $401,018

184 David Carter Cardinals $400,966

185 Greg Jones Giants $400,947

186 D.J. Smith Packers $400,788

187 Allen Bradford Buccaneers $399,525

188 Chris Rucker Colts $400,418

189 Mike Mohamed Broncos $400,000

190 Colin Jones 49ers $399,723 ($399,724 allocation)

191 Jason Kelce Eagles $399,358

192 Matt Bosher Falcons $398,950

193 Brian Rolle Eagles $399,150

194 Markell Carter Patriots $398,513

195 James Thomas Bears $398,129

196 Keith Williams Steelers $397,750

197 Ricky Elmore Packers $397,059

198 Tyler Sash Giants $394,670

199 Jerrell Powe Chiefs $394,670

200 Ross Homan Vikings $391,420

201 Stephen Schilling Chargers $394,670

202 Jacquian Williams Giants $394,670

203 Zach Williams Panthers $394,670

SEVENTH ROUND

204 Virgil Green Broncos $392,250

205 Lazarius Levingston Seahawks $392,225

206 Justin Rogers Bills $391,875

207 Korey Lindsey Bengals $391,741

208 Greg McElroy Jets $391,288

209 Johnny Culbreath Lions $390,933

210 Andrew Jackson Falcons $390,375

211 Bruce Miller 49ers $390,612 ($390,613 allocation)

212 Zach Clayton Titans $390,563

213 Brandyn Thompson Redskins $390,151

214 Derek Newton Texans $390,064

215 D'Aundre Reed Vikings $387,563

216 Mikail Baker Rams $389,873 ($389,856 allocation)

217 Maurice Hurt Redskins $389,850

218 Ryan Taylor Packers $389,794

219 Malcolm Williams Patriots $389,462

220 Shaun Chapas Cowboys $389,213

221 Da'Rel Scott Giants $388,988

222 Anthony Gaitor Buccaneers $388,404

223 Shane Bannon Chiefs $387,848

224 Markus White Redskins $387,721

225 Anthony Allen Ravens $387,589

226 Greg Romeus Saints $387,456

227 Scotty McKnight Jets $387,250

228 Jabara Williams Rams $387,273 ($387,250 allocation)

229 Jonathan Nelson Rams $387,273 ($387,150 allocation)

230 Cliff Matthews Falcons $386,750

231 Frank Kearse Dolphins $386,787

232 Baron Batch Steelers $386,628

233 Lawrence Guy Packers $386,475

234 Andrew Gachkar Chargers $386,475

235 Jimmy Wilson Dolphins $386,475

236 Stephen Burton Vikings $383,975

237 Greg Lloyd Eagles $382,475

238 Daniel Hardy Buccaneers $386,475

239 Michael Person 49ers $386,475 ($386,475 allocation)

240 Stanley Havili Eagles $385,475

241 David Ausberry Raiders $386,475

242 Malcolm Smith Seahawks $386,475

243 Nate Bussey Saints $386,475

244 Lee Ziemba Panthers $386,475

245 Michael Jasper Bills $386,475

246 Jay Finlay Bengals $386,473

247 Jeremy Beal Broncos $384,650

248 Eric Hagg Browns $385,100

249 Demarco Sampson Cardinals $386,475

250 Curtis Holcomb 49ers $386,475 ($386,475 allocation)

251 Tommie Campbell Titans $386,474

252 Bill Nagy Cowboys $386,475

253 Chris Neild Redskins $386,475

254 Cheta Ozougwu Texans $386,475

Trade-Fitted Draft Value Chart

2012-04-26T14:20:00.001-07:00

I recently posted the list of draft pick trades from 1993-2012. A few years ago, a message board poster who goes by Mr Bighead took the list through 2008 and fitted the trades using the Weibull distribution to come up with a draft value chart. Unlike the draft value charts that are commonly seen, this one is based on actual trades that have been made. There has been some speculation that the new "rookie wage scale" will affect draft pick trades, and this chart might help find out whether that is true. It might take a few years to know for sure, however, because trades also can be affected by the talent that is available in the draft, as this review of the 2009 draft trades suggests.

Here is the trade-fitted draft value chart, with credit going to Mr Bighead:

1 3000
2 2755
3 2591
4 2452
5 2330
6 2220
7 2120
8 2028
9 1942
10 1862
11 1787
12 1716
13 1650
14 1587
15 1528
16 1472
17 1419
18 1368
19 1319
20 1273
21 1229
22 1187
23 1147
24 1109
25 1072
26 1037
27 1003
28 970
29 939
30 909
31 880
32 853
33 826
34 800
35 776
36 752
37 729
38 707
39 686
40 665
41 646
42 626
43 608
44 590
45 573
46 556
47 540
48 525
49 510
50 495
51 481
52 468
53 455
54 442
55 430
56 418
57 406
58 395
59 384
60 373
61 363
62 353
63 344
64 335
65 326
66 317
67 308
68 300
69 292
70 285
71 277
72 270
73 263
74 256
75 249
76 243
77 236
78 230
79 224
80 219
81 213
82 208
83 202
84 197
85 192
86 187
87 183
88 178
89 173
90 169
91 165
92 161
93 157
94 153
95 149
96 145
97 142
98 138
99 135
100 132
101 128
102 125
103 122
104 119
105 116
106 114
107 111
108 108
109 106
110 103
111 101
112 98
113 96
114 94
115 91
116 89
117 87
118 85
119 83
120 81
121 79
122 77
123 75
124 74
125 72
126 70
127 69
128 67
129 66
130 64
131 63
132 61
133 60
134 58
135 57
136 56
137 54
138 53
139 52
140 51
141 50
142 48
143 47
144 46
145 45
146 44
147 43
148 42
149 41
150 40
151 39
152 39
153 38
154 37
155 36
156 35
157 35
158 34
159 33
160 32
161 32
162 31
163 30
164 30
165 29
166 28
167 28
168 27
169 26
170 26
171 25
172 25
173 24
174 24
175 23
176 23
177 22
178 22
179 21
180 21
181 20
182 20
183 19
184 19
185 19
186 18
187 18
188 17
189 17
190 17
191 16
192 16
193 16
194 15
195 15
196 15
197 14
198 14
199 14
200 13
201 13
202 13
203 13
204 12
205 12
206 12
207 12
208 11
209 11
210 11
211 11
212 10
213 10
214 10
215 10
216 10
217 9
218 9
219 9
220 9
221 9
222 8
223 8
224 8
225 8
226 8
227 8
228 7
229 7
230 7
231 7
232 7
233 7
234 7
235 6
236 6
237 6
238 6
239 6
240 6
241 6
242 6
243 6
244 5
245 5
246 5
247 5
248 5
249 5
250 5
251 5
252 5
253 4
254 4
255 4
256 4

History of Trading Up in the NFL Draft

2012-04-22T23:02:00.000-07:00

Following up on my previous post, here is the list of NFL draft pick trades since 1993 put in order according to the team trading up.

4, 65, next 1st, next 5th = 1
5, 36 = 1
6, 67, 102, 207 = 1
6, 39, next 1st, 1st in two years = 2
7, 83 = 5
7, 37 = 6
8, 104 = 6
8, 75, next 6th = 6
9, 82, 222 = 7, 191
10, 78 = 7, 164
11, 41, 70, 100 = 3, 63
12, 24, 119, 154 = 3
12, 71, 107, 144, 179, 218, next 1st, next 3rd = 5
12, 63 = 6
12, 43, 63 = 7, 72
12, 71, 106, 143, next 3rd = 7
13, 22, 116 = 4
13, 113 = 11
13, 144 = 12
13, 181 = 12
14, 83 = 11
14, 193 = 13
15, 56, 100 = 7
15, 45 = 10
15, 68 = 11
15, 110 = 14
16, 49 = 10
16, 48 = 12
16, next 3rd = 13
17, 18, 54 = 6, 37, 102
17, 48, 109 = 9
17, 66, 136 = 15, 76
18, 91, 116, 181 = 13, 110
18, 83, 201 = 13
18, 158 = 17
19, 75 = 13
19, 191 = 17
20, 89 = 16
20, 82, 191 = 17
20, 116 = 18
20, 119 = 19
21, 51 = 14
21, 86, 198 = 17
21, 91 = 17
21, 89 = 18
21, 195 = 19
22, 140 = 20
24, 70, 87 = 13
24, 113 = 22
25, 59, 164 = 14, 191
25, 155, next 3rd = 22
26, 71, 89, 125 = 8
26, 89, 173 = 18
26, 81 = 20
26, 105 = 23
26, 162 = 23
26, 123 = 24
27, 59, 124, next 1st, next 4th = 6
27, 92, 200 = 16
27, 70 = 21
27, 134 = 24
27, 90 = 24, 119
28, 58 = 16
28, 60 = 20, 156
28, 62 = 23, 217
28, 163, 235 = 25
29, 60 = 19
30, 94, 119, next 1st = 10
30, 62 = 15
30, 91, 193 = 22
31, 97, 134, next 4th = 19
31, 127 = 28
32, 96, 234 = 21
32, 63, 173 = 22, 188
32, 96, 129 = 25
34, 48, 103 = 21, 84, 154
34, 59 = 23
34, 98, 100 = 29
34, 100, 214 = 30, 128
36, next 1st = 22
36, 105, next 5th = 30
36, 113 = 30
36, 87, 159 = 26
36, 120 = 33
37, 68 = 22
37, 67 = 30
38, 69, 125 = 29, 90
38, 105 = 33
39, 70, 142 = 27
40, 71, 103, 138 = 27, 159
40, next 2nd = 29
40, 71 = 33
40, 118 = 37
40, 144 = 37
40, 173 = 38
41, next 1st = 19
41, 73, 83 = 26, 162
41, 63 = 28
41, 75 = 36, 117
41, 113 = 37
42, 73 = 26
42, 153 = 39
43, 109, next 1st = 19
43, 144, next 1st = 22
43, 70, 114 = 25
43, 74 = 34
44, 107 = 38
44, 121 = 41
44, 190 = 42
45, 108, 141 = 36
45, 116 = 39
46, 54, 94, 213 = 29, 112
46, 110 = 41
47, 93, 148 = 37, 139
47, 78, 111 = 40, 102
47, 124, 199 = 40, 164
47, 117 = 43, 152
48, next 1st = 41, 82, 110, 138
49, 107 = 44
50, 112 = 39
50, 120 = 45
50, 151 = 48
50, 173 = 48
52, 75 = 36
52, 81 = 37
52, 117 = 46
53, 189, next 2nd = 35
53, 114 = 45
53, 152 = 49
53, 189, 211 = 49
54, 84, next 6th = 43
54, 121 = 45
55, 86 = 38
55, 125 = 52
56, next 1st = 28
56, 87, 149 = 41
56, 87 = 44
56, 87 = 52, 96
56, 122 = 52
57, 120 = 51
57, 190, 227 = 55
58, 81 = 41
58, 89 = 47
58, 110 = 51
58, 158, next 7th = 52
59, 73, 163 = 44
59, 125 = 55
60, 99 = 49
61, 165 = 56
62, 93, 167, next 3rd = 37
62, 93 = 51
62, 127 = 53
62, 150 = 58
63, 89, 191 = 47, 235
65, 101 = 54
65, 100, 213 = 55
66, 145 = 58
66, 176 = 64
67, 103, 178 = 53, 195
67, 195 = 65
68, 105 = 49
68, 141, 173 = 59, 161
68, 135 = 61
69, 102 = 61
70, 81 = 53
70, 102 = 55
71, 134, 146 = 59
72, 104, 140 = 63, 129
72, 232 = 70
73, 138 = 60
73, 127 = 65
73, 145 = 67
74, 101 = 61
75, 110 = 51
75, 107, 154, 205 = 57, 157, 209
76, next 1st, next 4th = 25
76, 124, 149 = 57
76, 115, 228 = 65
76, 220 = 71
78, 114 = 61
79, 98, 134, 150 = 60, 99
79, 143, 172 = 60
79, 146, 217 = 62
79, 84 = 64, 132
80, 182 = 76
81, 152 = 72
82, 104 = 64
82, 115 = 70
83, 95 = 64
84, 149, 175, 190 = 53
84, 195, next 3rd = 64
84, 188 = 71
85, 116 = 70
86, 119 = 69
86, 122 = 71
86, 118 = 72
86, 119, 195 = 76
86, 156 = 77
88, 191, 229, next 6th = 67
88, 155 = 82
89, 115, 121 = 65
89, 118 = 79
90, 160 = 84
90, 191 = 85
91, 173, next 4th = 79
91, 164 = 85
92, 125 = 80
94, 127 = 79
94, 152 = 80
99, 171 = 96
100, 156 = 92
101, 166, 203 = 86
102, 153 = 87
102, 144 = 93
102, 175 = 94
103, 124, 154 = 93
104, 213 = 100
106, 182 = 102
108, 120, 227 = 82
108, 132 = 98
109, 183 = 93
110, next 1st = 28
110, 138 = 99
110, 146 = 99
111, next 4th = 92
112, 139 = 96
112, 155 = 96
112, 137 = 97
112, 142 = 102
112, 147 = 104
113, 125 = 98, next 7th
113, 162 = 102
113, 191 = 109
115, 126 = 89
115, 185 = 109
115, 208 = 110
116, next 4th = 104
116, 165 = 107
119, 154 = 86
119, 156 = 112
119, 192 = 112
120, 154 = 112
120, 158 = 115, 175
120, 229 = 117
121, 135 = 107
121, 196 = 111
121, 170, 173 = 112
122, 155 = 104
122, 159, 235 = 111
123, 163 = 107
124, 157 = 103
124, 198 = 112
125, 150, 225 = 104
126, next 1st = 42
126, 179 = 119
126, 169 = 120
127, 144, 152 = 105, 178
127, 185 = 123
128, 157 = 120
130, 194 = 123
130, 201 = 123
131, 144 = 117
136, next 6th = 123
137, 213, next 3rd = 91
137, 217 = 128
137, 141 = 123, 198
139, next 2nd = 81, 151
139, 154 = 117
141, 186 = 129, 204
146, 218 = 144
147, next 5th = 119
147, 189 = 122
148, next 4th = 132, next 6th
149, 189 = 135
150, 209 = 137
150, 189 = 138
152, 226 = 138
153, 189 = 150, 200
154, 186 = 145
155, 213 = 143
155, 231 = 144
156, 210 = 141
156, next 6th = 152
157, 166, 203 = 123
158, 195 = 138
158, 229 = 145
158, 221 = 150
159, next 5th = 146
160, next 2nd = 69
160, 222 = 153
160, 238 = 153
161, 162 = 135
161, 194 = 153, 227
162, 197 = 138
164, 201, 243 = 154, 225
165, 203 = 147
167, 175, 245 = 126
168, 170 = 150
168, 180 = 157, 228
170, 209 = 150
174, 219 = 163
174, 231 = 163
175, 231 = 154
175, 210 = 159
176, 233, next 3rd = 121
176, 193, 218 = 143
179, 218 = 165
179, 218 = 174, 231
180, 222 = 140
180, 216 = 149
182, 206 = 156
184, 207 = 174
185, 244 = 166
186, 219 = 174
187, 191 = 170
188, 226 = 179
194, 198, 203 = 149
195, 246 = 175
195, 233 = 182
199, 203, 215 = 137
200, 234 = 195
205, 223 = 182
208, 210, 248 = 169, 219
211, next 3rd = 91
213, 236 = 197
215, next 4th = 138
216, next 6th = 202
219, next 2nd = 92, 125
221, 253 = 207
222, next 5th = 164
223, 232, 254 = 209, 225
226, 247 = 181
229, 231 = 208
230, next 5th = 175
232, next 2nd = 73
235, next 5th = 174
237, next 5th = 168
next 1st = 37
next 1st = 41
next 1st = 42
next 1st = 43, 111
next 1st = 51
1st in two years = 43
1st in two years = 59
next 2nd = 78
next 2nd = 83, 262
next 2nd = 88, 187
next 2nd = 89
next 2nd = 89
next 3rd = 104
next 3rd = 111
next 3rd = 111
next 3rd = 112
next 3rd = 116
next 3rd = 146, 163
next 3rd = 146, 218
next 4th = 137
next 4th = 138
next 4th = 145, 206
next 4th = 148
next 4th = 157
next 4th = 158
next 4th = 215, 219, 226
next 5th = 170
next 5th = 191
next 5th = 192
next 5th = 225, 232
next 6th = 191
next 6th = 200
next 6th = 212
next 6th = 215
next 6th = 220
next 6th = 222
next 6th = 231
next 6th = 237
next 6th = 238
next 6th = 238
next 6th = 245
next 7th = 237

History of Trading Down in the NFL Draft

2012-04-22T22:53:00.000-07:00

Earlier today, I posted the list of draft pick trades since 1993. Here is the same list of trades put in order according to the team trading down.

1 = 4, 65, next 1st, next 5th
1 = 5, 36
1 = 6, 67, 102, 207
2 = 6, 39, next 1st, 1st in two years
3 = 12, 24, 119, 154
3, 63 = 11, 41, 70, 100
4 = 13, 22, 116
5 = 12, 71, 107, 144, 179, 218, next 1st, next 3rd
5 = 7, 83
6 = 12, 63
6 = 27, 59, 124, next 1st, next 4th
6 = 7, 37
6 = 8, 104
6 = 8, 75, next 6th
6, 37, 102 = 17, 18, 54
7 = 12, 71, 106, 143, next 3rd
7 = 15, 56, 100
7, 72 = 12, 43, 63
7, 164 = 10, 78
7, 191 = 9, 82, 222
8 = 26, 71, 89, 125
9 = 17, 48, 109
10 = 15, 45
10 = 16, 49
10 = 30, 94, 119, next 1st
11 = 13, 113
11 = 14, 83
11 = 15, 68
12 = 13, 144
12 = 13, 181
12 = 16, 48
13 = 14, 193
13 = 16, next 3rd
13 = 18, 83, 201
13 = 19, 75
13 = 24, 70, 87
13, 110 = 18, 91, 116, 181
14 = 15, 110
14 = 21, 51
14, 191 = 25, 59, 164
15 = 30, 62
15, 76 = 17, 66, 136
16 = 20, 89
16 = 27, 92, 200
16 = 28, 58
17 = 18, 158
17 = 19, 191
17 = 20, 82, 191
17 = 21, 86, 198
17 = 21, 91
18 = 20, 116
18 = 21, 89
18 = 26, 89, 173
19 = 20, 119
19 = 21, 195
19 = 29, 60
19 = 31, 97, 134, next 4th
19 = 41, next 1st
19 = 43, 109, next 1st
20 = 22, 140
20 = 26, 81
20, 156 = 28, 60
21 = 27, 70
21 = 32, 96, 234
21, 84, 154 = 34, 48, 103
22 = 24, 113
22 = 25, 155, next 3rd
22 = 30, 91, 193
22 = 36, next 1st
22 = 37, 68
22 = 43, 144, next 1st
22, 188 = 32, 63, 173
23 = 26, 105
23 = 26, 162
23 = 34, 59
23, 217 = 28, 62
24 = 26, 123
24 = 27, 134
24, 119 = 27, 90
25 = 28, 163, 235
25 = 32, 96, 129
25 = 43, 70, 114
25 = 76, next 1st, next 4th
26 = 36, 87, 159
26 = 42, 73
26, 162 = 41, 73, 83
27 = 39, 70, 142
27, 159 = 40, 71, 103, 138
28 = 110, next 1st
28 = 31, 127
28 = 41, 63
28 = 56, next 1st
29 = 34, 98, 100
29 = 40, next 2nd
29, 90 = 38, 69, 125
29, 112 = 46, 54, 94, 213
30 = 36, 105, next5th
30 = 36, 113
30 = 37, 67
30, 128 = 34, 100, 214
33 = 36, 120
33 = 38, 105
33 = 40, 71
34 = 43, 74
35 = 53, 189, next 2nd
36 = 45, 108, 141
36 = 52, 75
36, 117 = 41, 75
37 = 40, 118
37 = 40, 144
37 = 41, 113
37 = 52, 81
37 = 62, 93, 167, next 3rd
37 = next 1st
37, 139 = 47, 93, 148
38 = 40, 173
38 = 44, 107
38 = 55, 86
39 = 42, 153
39 = 45, 116
39 = 50, 112
40, 102 = 47, 78, 111
40, 164 = 47, 124, 199
41 = 44, 121
41 = 46, 110
41 = 56, 87, 149
41 = 58, 81
41 = next 1st
41, 82, 110, 138 = 48, next 1st
42 = 126, next 1st
42 = 44, 190
42 = next 1st
43 = 1st in two years
43 = 54, 84, next 6th
43, 111 = next 1st
43, 152 = 47, 117
44 = 49, 107
44 = 56, 87
44 = 59, 73, 163
45 = 50, 120
45 = 53, 114
45 = 54, 121
46 = 52, 117
47 = 58, 89
47, 235 = 63, 89, 191
48 = 50, 151
48 = 50, 173
49 = 53, 152
49 = 53, 189, 211
49 = 60, 99
49 = 68, 105
51 = 57, 120
51 = 58, 110
51 = 62, 93
51 = 75, 110
51 = next 1st
52 = 55, 125
52 = 56, 122
52 = 58, 158, next 7th
52, 96 = 56, 87
53 = 62, 127
53 = 70, 81
53 = 84, 149, 175, 190
53, 195 = 67, 103, 178
54 = 65, 101
55 = 57, 190, 227
55 = 59, 125
55 = 65, 100, 213
55 = 70, 102
56 = 61, 165
57 = 76, 124, 149
57, 157, 209 = 75, 107, 154, 205
58 = 62, 150
58 = 66, 145
59 = 1st in two years
59 = 71, 134, 146
59, 161 = 68, 141, 173
60 = 73, 138
60 = 79, 143, 172
60, 99 = 79, 98, 134, 150
61 = 68, 135
61 = 69, 102
61 = 74, 101
61 = 78, 114
62 = 79, 146, 217
63, 129 = 72, 104, 140
64 = 66, 176
64 = 82, 104
64 = 83, 95
64 = 84, 195, next 3rd
64, 132 = 79, 84
65 = 67, 195
65 = 73, 127
65 = 76, 115, 228
65 = 89, 115, 121
67 = 73, 145
67 = 88, 191, 229, next 6th
69 = 160, next 2nd
69 = 86, 119
70 = 72, 232
70 = 82, 115
70 = 85, 116
71 = 76, 220
71 = 84, 188
71 = 86, 122
72 = 81, 152
72 = 86, 118
73 = 232, next 2nd
76 = 80, 182
76 = 86, 119, 195
77 = 86, 156
78 = next 2nd
79 = 89, 118
79 = 91, 173, next 4th
79 = 94, 127
80 = 92, 125
80 = 94, 152
81, 151 = 139, next 2nd
82 = 108, 120, 227
82 = 88, 155
83, 262 = next 2nd
84 = 90, 160
85 = 90, 191
85 = 91, 164
86 = 101, 166, 203
86 = 119, 154
87 = 102, 153
88, 187 = next 2nd
89 = 115, 126
89 = next 2nd
89 = next 2nd
91 = 137, 213, next 3rd
91 = 211, next 3rd
92 = 100, 156
92 = 111, next 4th
92, 125 = 219, next 2nd
93 = 102, 144
93 = 103, 124, 154
93 = 109, 183
94 = 102, 175
96 = 112, 139
96 = 112, 155
96 = 99, 171
97 = 112, 137
98 = 108, 132
98, next 7th = 113, 125
99 = 110, 138
99 = 110, 146
100 = 104, 213
102 = 106, 182
102 = 112, 142
102 = 113, 162
103 = 124, 157
104 = 112, 147
104 = 116, next 4th
104 = 122, 155
104 = 125, 150, 225
104 = next 3rd
105, 178 = 127, 144, 152
107 = 116, 165
107 = 121, 135
107 = 123, 163
109 = 113, 191
109 = 115, 185
110 = 115, 208
111 = 121, 196
111 = 122, 159, 235
111 = next 3rd
111 = next 3rd
112 = 119, 156
112 = 119, 192
112 = 120, 154
112 = 121, 170, 173
112 = 124, 198
112 = next 3rd
115, 175 = 120, 158
116 = next 3rd
117 = 120, 229
117 = 131, 144
117 = 139, 154
119 = 126, 179
119 = 147, next 5th
120 = 126, 169
120 = 128, 157
121 = 176, 233, next 3rd
122 = 147, 189
123 = 127, 185
123 = 130, 194
123 = 130, 201
123 = 136, next 6th
123 = 157, 166, 203
123, 198 = 137, 141
126 = 167, 175, 245
128 = 137, 217
129, 204 = 141, 186
132, next 6th = 148, next 4th
135 = 149, 189
135 = 161, 162
137 = 150, 209
137 = 199, 203, 215
137 = next 4th
138 = 150, 189
138 = 152, 226
138 = 158, 195
138 = 162, 197
138 = 215, next 4th
138 = next 4th
140 = 180, 222
141 = 156, 210
143 = 155, 213
143 = 176, 193, 218
144 = 146, 218
144 = 155, 231
145 = 154, 186
145 = 158, 229
145, 206 = next 4th
146 = 159, next 5th
146, 163 = next 3rd
146, 218 = next 3rd
147 = 165, 203
148 = next 4th
149 = 180, 216
149 = 194, 198, 203
150 = 158, 221
150 = 168, 170
150 = 170, 209
150, 200 = 153, 189
152 = 156, next 6th
153 = 160, 222
153 = 160, 238
153, 227 = 161, 194
154 = 175, 231
154, 225 = 164, 201, 243
156 = 182, 206
157 = next 4th
157, 228 = 168, 180
158 = next 4th
159 = 175, 210
163 = 174, 219
163 = 174, 231
164 = 222, next 5th
165 = 179, 218
166 = 185, 244
168 = 237, next 5th
169, 219 = 208, 210, 248
170 = 187, 191
170 = next 5th
174 = 184, 207
174 = 186, 219
174 = 235, next 5th
174, 231 = 179, 218
175 = 195, 246
175 = 230, next 5th
179 = 188, 226
181 = 226, 247
182 = 195, 233
182 = 205, 223
191 = next 5th
191 = next 6th
192 = next 5th
195 = 200, 234
197 = 213, 236
200 = next 6th
202 = 216, next 6th
207 = 221, 253
208 = 229, 231
209, 225 = 223, 232, 254
212 = next 6th
215 = next 6th
215, 219, 226 = next 4th
220 = next 6th
222 = next 6th
225, 232 = next 5th
231 = next 6th
237 = next 6th
237 = next 7th
238 = next 6th
238 = next 6th
245 = next 6th

History of NFL Draft Pick Trades

2012-04-22T17:51:00.000-07:00

Below is a list of trades made since 1993 that have involved only NFL draft picks, not players. There might be some late-round trades from 1993 or 1994 that are missing, but this should include every other trade since 1993. Any additions or corrections are welcome. And yes, there have been three trades (in 1995, 1997 and 2011) when teams have traded down without getting anything additional in return.

1993 DRAFT

11 = 14, 83
13 = 19, 75
18 = 20, 116
20 = 26, 81
29, 112 = 46, 54, 94, 213
33 = 36, 120
41 = 58, 81
41, 82, 110, 138 = 48, next 1st
44 = 49, 107
64 = 82, 104
65 = 73, 127
72 = 81, 152
92 = 100, 156
99 = 110, 138
112 = 119, 156

1994 DRAFT

5 = 7, 83
7 = 15, 56, 100
12 = 13, 144
16 = 20, 89
23, 217 = 28, 62
29 = 40, next 2nd
37 = 40, 118
52 = 55, 125
53 = 84, 149, 175, 190
65 = 89, 115, 121
80 = 94, 152
107 = 121, 135
120 = 126, 169

1995 DRAFT

1 = 5, 36
7, 72 = 12, 43, 63
10 = 30, 94, 119, next 1st
19 = 31, 97, 134, next 4th
22, 188 = 32, 63, 173
28 = 41, 63
29 = 34, 98, 100
33 = 40, 71
41 = 46, 110
51 = next 1st
70 = 82, 115
84 = 90, 160
111 = 121, 196
112 = next 3rd
123 = 136, next 6th
119 = 147, next 5th
138 = 152, 226
169, 219 = 208, 210, 248
191 = next 6th
231 = 234

1996 DRAFT

9 = 17, 48, 109
13 = 18, 83, 201
17 = 21, 91
30 = 37, 67
41 = next 1st
49 = 60, 99
55 = 65, 100, 213
57 = 76, 124, 149
60, 99 = 79, 98, 134, 150
76 = 86, 119, 195
97 = 112, 137
98, next 7th = 113, 125
99 = 110, 146
111 = 122, 159, 235
135 = 161, 162
157 = next 4th
192 = next 5th

1997 DRAFT

1 = 6, 67, 102, 207
3, 63 = 11, 41, 70, 100
6 = 8, 104
6 = 12, 63
13, 110 = 18, 91, 116, 181
22 = 25, 155, next 3rd
38 = 40, 173
54 = 65, 101
55 = 57, 190, 227
67 = 88, 191, 229, next 6th
71 = 84, 188
77 = 86, 156
107 = 116, 165
112 = 121, 170, 173
123 = 157, 166, 203
138 = 215, next 4th
140 = 180, 222
146, 218 = next 3rd
193 = 213

1998 DRAFT

19 = 29, 60
23 = 34, 59
41 = 56, 87, 149
43 = 1st in two years (2000)
45 = 53, 114
59 = 1st in two years (2000)
60 = 79, 143, 172
65 = 67, 195
70 = 85, 116
93 = 103, 124, 154
102 = 112, 142
104 = next 3rd
109 = 113, 191
137 = 199, 203, 215
138 = 162, 197
152 = 156, next 6th
200 = next 6th
215 = next 6th

1999 DRAFT

5 = 12, 71, 107, 144, 179, 218, next 1st, next 3rd
7 = 12, 71, 106, 143, next 3rd
17 = 20, 82, 191
20 = 22, 140
24 = 27, 134
27 = 39, 70, 142
37 = 40, 144
40, 102 = 47, 78, 111
42 = next 1st
43 = 54, 84, next 6th
44 = 59, 73, 163
46 = 52, 117
70 = 72, 232
96 = 99, 171
137 = next 4th
146, 163 = next 3rd
165 = 179, 218
170 = 187, 191
174 = 184, 207
182 = 195, 233
207 = 221, 253

2000 DRAFT

3 = 12, 24, 119, 154
10 = 15, 45
12 = 16, 48
51 = 57, 120
61 = 68, 135
86 = 119, 154
98 = 108, 132
111 = next 3rd
104 = 125, 150, 225
138 = 158, 195
150 = 170, 209
154 = 175, 231
209, 225 = 223, 232, 254
212 = next 6th
231 = next 6th
238 = next 6th

2001 DRAFT

7, 191 = 9, 82, 222
14 = 21, 51
22 = 30, 91, 193
37 = 52, 81
39 = 50, 112
48 = 50, 173
51 = 58, 110
52 = 56, 122
53 = 70, 81
61 = 78, 114
69 = 86, 119
88, 187 = next 2nd
96 = 112, 139
145 = 154, 186
149 = 180, 216
170 = next 5th
215, 219, 226 = next 4th

2002 DRAFT

6 = 8, 75, next 6th
14 = 15, 110
18 = 21, 89
17 = 18, 158
20, 156 = 28, 60
21 = 32, 96, 234
52, 96 = 56, 87
61 = 69, 102
63, 129 = 72, 104, 140
67 = 73, 145
79 = 89, 118
96 = 112, 155
116 = next 3rd
117 = 131, 144
122 = 147, 189
168 = 237, next 5th

2003 DRAFT

4 = 13, 22, 116
6, 37, 102 = 17, 18, 54
13 = 14, 193
15 = 30, 62
16 = 27, 92, 200
19 = 41, next 1st
36, 117 = 41, 75
45 = 50, 120
78 = next 2nd
79 = 94, 127
82 = 108, 120, 227
83, 262 = next 2nd
120 = 128, 157
138 = next 4th
143 = 176, 193, 218
147 = 165, 203
150, 200 = 153, 189
154, 225 = 164, 201, 243
166 = 185, 244
181 = 226, 247
245 = next 6th

2004 DRAFT

1 = 4, 65, next 1st, next 5th
6 = 7, 37
16 = 28, 58
19 = 20, 119
22 = 43, 144, next 1st
24 = 26, 123
27, 159 = 40, 71, 103, 138
28 = 31, 127
29, 90 = 38, 69, 125
30 = 36, 105, next5th
38 = 44, 107
48 = 50, 151
55 = 70, 102
59, 161 = 68, 141, 173
72 = 86, 118
81, 151 = 139, next 2nd
82 = 88, 155
87 = 102, 153
104 = 112, 147
153 = 160, 222
156 = 182, 206
159 = 175, 210
174 = 186, 219
179 = 188, 226
182 = 205, 223

2005 DRAFT
13 = 16, next 3rd
23 = 26, 105
25 = 76, next 1st, next 4th
37 = 41, 113
45 = 54, 121
64 = 84, 195, next 3rd
89 = 115, 126
94 = 102, 175
112 = 120, 154
123 = 127, 185
126 = 167, 175, 245
132, next 6th = 148, next 4th
144 = 155, 231
145, 206 = next 4th
148 = next 4th
175 = 195, 246
175 = 230, next 5th

2006 DRAFT

11 = 15, 68
12 = 13, 181
22 = 37, 68
25 = 32, 96, 129
26 = 42, 73
35 = 53, 189, next 2nd
36 = 52, 75
37, 139 = 47, 93, 148
39 = 45, 116
44 = 56, 87
49 = 53, 189, 211
64 = 83, 95
71 = 76, 220
80 = 92, 125
93 = 109, 183
109 = 115, 185
138 = 150, 189
197 = 213, 236
238 = next 6th

2007 DRAFT

14, 191 = 25, 59, 164
17 = 21, 86, 198
22 = 36, next 1st
26 = 36, 87, 159
28 = 110, next 1st
33 = 38, 105
34 = 43, 74
37 = 62, 93, 167, next 3rd
41 = 44, 121
42 = 126, next 1st
47, 235 = 63, 89, 191
53, 195 = 67, 103, 178
58 = 66, 145
61 = 74, 101
86 = 101, 166, 203
91 = 211, next 3rd
102 = 106, 182
107 = 123, 163
112 = 119, 192
117 = 139, 154
121 = 176, 233, next 3rd
149 = 194, 198, 203
195 = 200, 234

2008 DRAFT

7, 164 = 10, 78
8 = 26, 71, 89, 125
15, 76 = 17, 66, 136
18 = 26, 89, 173
19 = 43, 109, next 1st
21, 84, 154 = 34, 48, 103
25 = 28, 163, 235
30 = 36, 113
38 = 55, 86
43, 152 = 47, 117
52 = 58, 158, next 7th
64 = 66, 176
69 = 160, next 2nd
92 = 111, next 4th
103 = 124, 157
100 = 104, 213
102 = 113, 162
104 = 122, 155
110 = 115, 208
111 = next 3rd
115, 175 = 120, 158
123 = 130, 194
128 = 137, 217
137 = 150, 209
143 = 155, 213
144 = 146, 218
153 = 160, 238
157, 228 = 168, 180
191 = next 5th
237 = next 6th

2009 DRAFT

17 = 19, 191
19 = 21, 195
23 = 26, 162
26, 162 = 41, 73, 83
37 = next 1st
40, 164 = 47, 124, 199
43, 111 = next 1st
49 = 68, 105
51 = 75, 110
56 = 61, 165
64, 132 = 79, 84
65 = 76, 115, 228
73 = 232, next 2nd
85 = 91, 164
89 = next 2nd
91 = 137, 213, next 3rd
117 = 120, 229
123, 198 = 137, 141
141 = 156, 210
150 = 158, 221
164 = 222, next 5th
174 = 235, next 5th
202 = 216, next 6th
222 = next 6th
237 = next 7th

2010 DRAFT

11 = 13, 113
13 = 24, 70, 87
22 = 24, 113
24, 119 = 27, 90
25 = 43, 70, 114
30, 128 = 34, 100, 214
39 = 42, 153
42 = 44, 190
47 = 58, 89
51 = 62, 93
55 = 59, 125
58 = 62, 150
59 = 71, 134, 146
71 = 86, 122
79 = 91, 173, next 4th
89 = next 2nd
93 = 102, 144
112 = 124, 198
119 = 126, 179
123 = 130, 201
135 = 149, 189
146 = 159, next 5th
158 = next 4th
163 = 174, 219
208 = 229, 231
220 = next 6th
225, 232 = next 5th

2011 DRAFT

6 = 27, 59, 124, next 1st, next 4th
10 = 16, 49
21 = 27, 70
28 = 56, next 1st
36 = 45, 108, 141
49 = 53, 152
53 = 62, 127
57, 157, 209 = 75, 107, 154, 205
60 = 73, 138
62 = 79, 146, 217
76 = 80, 182
85 = 90, 191
92, 125 = 219, next 2nd
104 = 116, next 4th
105, 178 = 127, 144, 152
129, 204 = 141, 186
145 = 158, 229
150 = 168, 170
153, 227 = 161, 194
163 = 174, 231
193 = 194
174, 231 = 179, 218

2012 DRAFT

2 = 6, 39, next 1st, 1st in two years (2014)

Any additions or corrections can be posted in the comments below.

2012 Compensatory Draft Picks

2012-03-26T14:35:00.000-07:00

Here are the 2012 Compensatory Draft Picks that were awarded by the NFL, with the corresponding player or reason for each pick --

3    33-95    Oakland    CB Nnamdi Asomugha
4    33-128    Minnesota    WR Sidney Rice
4    34-129    Oakland    TE Zach Miller
4    35-130    Baltimore    DB Dawan Landry
4    36-131    NY Giants    DT Barry Cofield
4    37-132    Green Bay    DE Cullen Jenkins
4    38-133    Green Bay    G Daryn Colledge
4    39-134    Minnesota    DE Ray Edwards
4    40-135    Dallas    DE Stephen Bowen
5    33-168    Oakland    T Robert Gallery
5    34-169    Baltimore    DB Josh Wilson
5    35-170    Indianapolis    LB Clint Session
6    33-202    NY Jets    DE Shaun Ellis
6    34-203    NY Jets    WR Brad Smith
6    35-204    Cleveland    LB Matt Roth
6    36-205    Cleveland    DB Abram Elam
6    37-206    Indianapolis    T Charlie Johnson
6    38-207    Carolina    QB Matt Moore
7    33-240    Pittsburgh    TE Matt Spaeth
7    34-241    Green Bay    RB Brandon Jackson
7    35-242    NY Jets    DB Drew Coleman
7    36-243    Green Bay    C Jason Spitz
7    37-244    NY Jets    WR Braylon Edwards
7    38-245    Cleveland    G Floyd Womack
7    39-246    Pittsburgh    DE Nick Eason
7    40-247    Cleveland    LB Jason Trusnik
7    41-248    Pittsburgh    LB Keyaron Fox
7    42-249    Atlanta    "net value" (signed 2, lost 2)
7    43-250    San Diego    "net value" (signed 2, lost 2)
7    44-251    Buffalo    "net value" (signed 2, lost 2)
7    45-252    St. Louis    draft order filler
7    46-253    Indianapolis    draft order filler

A note about the 2011 comp picks

2011-03-21T02:28:00.000-07:00

   The 2011 compensatory picks should be awarded this week during the NFL Annual Meeting in New Orleans, possibly as soon as today. [UPDATE: The announcement is not expected this week. See the note below.] Obviously, I did not post projections this year, which marks the first time since 2001 that I haven't done so. Call it another consequence of the NFL's labor dispute, although it pales in comparison to the consequences for the thousands of people whose livelihood has been affected or will be affected if the labor dispute continues.

   My goal in projecting the comp picks has always been to try to solve the puzzle — to analyze the comp picks that have been awarded and the factors involved enough to be able to achieve 100 percent accuracy, with every pick in the correct round and all of them in the correct order. It might have been an impossible goal, but I had fun trying. With the NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement now expired, there is no guarantee that there will ever be compensatory picks awarded after this week — or, for that matter, that the draft will continue as we know it after next month. For that reason, I chose not to spend the time that it takes to make my projections. Had the owners and players resolved their issues before the CBA expired, thus ensuring that comp picks would continue to be awarded each year, I would have projected this year's picks and posted my projections, as usual. If the next CBA includes comp picks, I fully plan to resume making my projections for my own entertainment and for the benefit of anyone who might be interested.

   I do plan to analyze this year's picks after they are awarded, and I should be able to post a breakdown of which picks were awarded for which specific players. I'll also try to answer any questions posted here about this year's picks or about comp picks in general.

   UPDATE: According to ESPN.com's Mike Reiss, the comp picks will not be announced during the Annual Meeting, as they usually are. They will be announced at a later date.

The trade value of NFL draft picks

2010-04-18T02:57:00.000-07:00

By now, surely every NFL general manager, every draftnik and everyone who claims to be a professional draft expert has seen a version of the draft pick value chart. Many fans consider strict adherence to the value chart to be mandatory when discussing possible or proposed trades between teams. The values must balance out to ensure that neither team is giving up too much or receiving too little. In reality, though, draft picks are worth only what two teams decide they're worth. Some teams might be willing to pay more to trade up for a player they really like or take less to trade down when they have multiple players they like and know they can get one with a lower pick. And it's not always possible to find a trading partner with exactly the right combination of picks to make the trade balance out using the values on the chart. A look at the trades made by teams from 1993 to 2009 makes it apparent that teams usually don't quibble over a few points on the value chart: 59 percent of the trades were simple two-for-one deals, and only 11 percent involved more than one pick going to each team.

The value chart can be a handy reference tool, but it's only a guide. Another — perhaps more accurate — way of determining the value of draft picks is to look at previous trades involving those picks. After all, the true value of draft picks is determined by the teams themselves, not the chart.

Below is a list that should include every trade from 1993 to 2009 that involved only draft picks (not players). If there are any trades missing, they would be picks-only trades made that were made well before draft day. Picks in the following year's draft are referred to as "next 1st," "next 2nd," etc. And those are not typos at the end of the 1995 and 1997 trades. Two teams — New England in 1995 and Green Bay in 1997 — really did trade a higher pick for a lower pick, straight up. The Patriots moved down just three spots, but the Packers moved down 20 spots and got absolutely nothing extra in return. GM Ron Wolf said he "just wanted to make a trade."

With that said, here's the list —

1993 DRAFT

11 = 14, 83
13 = 19, 75
18 = 20, 116
20 = 26, 81
29, 112 = 46, 54, 94, 213
33 = 36, 120
41 = 58, 81
41, 82, 110, 138 = 48, next 1st
44 = 49, 107
64 = 82, 104
65 = 73, 127
72 = 81, 152
92 = 100, 156
99 = 110, 138
112 = 119, 156

1994 DRAFT

5 = 7, 83
7 = 15, 56, 100
12 = 13, 144
16 = 20, 89
23, 217 = 28, 62
29 = 40, next 2nd
37 = 40, 118
52 = 55, 125
53 = 84, 149, 175, 190
65 = 89, 115, 121
80 = 94, 152
107 = 121, 135
120 = 126, 169

1995 DRAFT

1 = 5, 36
7, 72 = 12, 43, 63
10 = 30, 94, 119, next 1st
19 = 31, 97, 134, next 4th
22, 188 = 32, 63, 173
28 = 41, 63
29 = 34, 98, 100
33 = 40, 71
41 = 46, 110
51 = next 1st
70 = 82, 115
84 = 90, 160
111 = 121, 196
112 = next 3rd
123 = 136, next 6th
119 = 147, next 5th
138 = 152, 226
169, 219 = 208, 210, 248
191 = next 6th
231 = 234

1996 DRAFT

9 = 17, 48, 109
13 = 18, 83, 201
17 = 21, 91
30 = 37, 67
41 = next 1st
49 = 60, 99
55 = 65, 100, 213
57 = 76, 124, 149
60, 99 = 79, 98, 134, 150
76 = 86, 119, 195
97 = 112, 137
98, next 7th = 113, 125
99 = 110, 146
111 = 122, 159, 235
135 = 161, 162
157 = next 4th
192 = next 5th

1997 DRAFT

1 = 6, 67, 102, 207
3, 63 = 11, 41, 70, 100
6 = 8, 104
6 = 12, 63
13, 110 = 18, 91, 116, 181
22 = 25, 155, next 3rd
38 = 40, 173
54 = 65, 101
55 = 57, 190, 227
67 = 88, 191, 229, next 6th
71 = 84, 188
77 = 86, 156
107 = 116, 165
112 = 121, 170, 173
123 = 157, 166, 203
138 = 215, next 4th
140 = 180, 222
146, 218 = next 3rd
193 = 213

1998 DRAFT

19 = 29, 60
23 = 34, 59
41 = 56, 87, 149
43 = 1st in two years (2000)
45 = 53, 114
59 = 1st in two years (2000)
60 = 79, 143, 172
65 = 67, 195
70 = 85, 116
93 = 103, 124, 154
102 = 112, 142
104 = next 3rd
109 = 113, 191
137 = 199, 203, 215
138 = 162, 197
152 = 156, next 6th
200 = next 6th
215 = next 6th

1999 DRAFT

5 = 12, 71, 107, 144, 179, 218, next 1st, next 3rd
7 = 12, 71, 106, 143, next 3rd
17 = 20, 82, 191
20 = 22, 140
24 = 27, 134
27 = 39, 70, 142
37 = 40, 144
40, 102 = 47, 78, 111
42 = next 1st
43 = 54, 84, next 6th
44 = 59, 73, 163
46 = 52, 117
70 = 72, 232
96 = 99, 171
137 = next 4th
146, 163 = next 3rd
165 = 179, 218
170 = 187, 191
174 = 184, 207
182 = 195, 233
207 = 221, 253

2000 DRAFT

3 = 12, 24, 119, 154
10 = 15, 45
12 = 16, 48
51 = 57, 120
61 = 68, 135
86 = 119, 154
98 = 108, 132
111 = next 3rd
104 = 125, 150, 225
138 = 158, 195
150 = 170, 209
154 = 175, 231
209, 225 = 223, 232, 254
212 = next 6th
231 = next 6th
238 = next 6th

2001 DRAFT

7, 191 = 9, 82, 222
14 = 21, 51
22 = 30, 91, 193
37 = 52, 81
39 = 50, 112
48 = 50, 173
51 = 58, 110
52 = 56, 122
53 = 70, 81
61 = 78, 114
69 = 86, 119
88, 187 = next 2nd
96 = 112, 139
145 = 154, 186
149 = 180, 216
170 = next 5th
215, 219, 226 = next 4th

2002 DRAFT

6 = 8, 75, next 6th
14 = 15, 110
18 = 21, 89
17 = 18, 158
20, 156 = 28, 60
21 = 32, 96, 234
52, 96 = 56, 87
61 = 69, 102
63, 129 = 72, 104, 140
67 = 73, 145
79 = 89, 118
96 = 112, 155
116 = next 3rd
117 = 131, 144
122 = 147, 189
168 = 237, next 5th

2003 DRAFT

4 = 13, 22, 116
6, 37, 102 = 17, 18, 54
13 = 14, 193
15 = 30, 62
16 = 27, 92, 200
19 = 41, next 1st
36, 117 = 41, 75
45 = 50, 120
78 = next 2nd
79 = 94, 127
82 = 108, 120, 227
83, 262 = next 2nd
120 = 128, 157
138 = next 4th
143 = 176, 193, 218
147 = 165, 203
150, 200 = 153, 189
154, 225 = 164, 201, 243
166 = 185, 244
181 = 226, 247
245 = next 6th

2004 DRAFT

1 = 4, 65, next 1st, next 5th
6 = 7, 37
16 = 28, 58
19 = 20, 119
22 = 43, 144, next 1st
24 = 26, 123
27, 159 = 40, 71, 103, 138
28 = 31, 127
29, 90 = 38, 69, 125
30 = 36, 105, next5th
38 = 44, 107
48 = 50, 151
55 = 70, 102
59, 161 = 68, 141, 173
72 = 86, 118
81, 151 = 139, next 2nd
82 = 88, 155
87 = 102, 153
104 = 112, 147
153 = 160, 222
156 = 182, 206
159 = 175, 210
174 = 186, 219
179 = 188, 226
182 = 205, 223

2005 DRAFT

13 = 16, next 3rd
23 = 26, 105
25 = 76, next 1st, next 4th
37 = 41, 113
45 = 54, 121
64 = 84, 195, next 3rd
89 = 115, 126
94 = 102, 175
112 = 120, 154
123 = 127, 185
126 = 167, 175, 245
132, next 6th = 148, next 4th
144 = 155, 231
145, 206 = next 4th
148 = next 4th
175 = 195, 246
175 = 230, next 5th

2006 DRAFT

11 = 15, 68
12 = 13, 181
22 = 37, 68
25 = 32, 96, 129
26 = 42, 73
35 = 53, 189, next 2nd
36 = 52, 75
37, 139 = 47, 93, 148
39 = 45, 116
44 = 56, 87
49 = 53, 189, 211
64 = 83, 95
71 = 76, 220
80 = 92, 125
93 = 109, 183
109 = 115, 185
138 = 150, 189
197 = 213, 236
238 = next 6th

2007 DRAFT

14, 191 = 25, 59, 164
17 = 21, 86, 198
22 = 36, next 1st
26 = 36, 87, 159
28 = 110, next 1st
33 = 38, 105
34 = 43, 74
37 = 62, 93, 167, next 3rd
41 = 44, 121
42 = 126, next 1st
47, 235 = 63, 89, 191
53, 195 = 67, 103, 178
58 = 66, 145
61 = 74, 101
86 = 101, 166, 203
91 = 211, next 3rd
102 = 106, 182
107 = 123, 163
112 = 119, 192
117 = 139, 154
121 = 176, 233, next 3rd
149 = 194, 198, 203
195 = 200, 234

2008 DRAFT

7, 164 = 10, 78
8 = 26, 71, 89, 125
15, 76 = 17, 66, 136
18 = 26, 89, 173
19 = 43, 109, next 1st
21, 84, 154 = 34, 48, 103
25 = 28, 163, 235
30 = 36, 113
38 = 55, 86
43, 152 = 47, 117
52 = 58, 158, next 7th
64 = 66, 176
69 = 160, next 2nd
92 = 111, next 4th
103 = 124, 157
100 = 104, 213
102 = 113, 162
104 = 122, 155
110 = 115, 208
111 = next 3rd
115, 175 = 120, 158
123 = 130, 194
128 = 137, 217
137 = 150, 209
143 = 155, 213
144 = 146, 218
153 = 160, 238
157, 228 = 168, 180
191 = next 5th
237 = next 6th

2009 DRAFT

17 = 19, 191
19 = 21, 195
23 = 26, 162
26, 162 = 41, 73, 83
37 = next 1st
40, 164 = 47, 124, 199
43, 111 = next 1st
49 = 68, 105
51 = 75, 110
56 = 61, 165
64, 132 = 79, 84
65 = 76, 115, 228
73 = 232, next 2nd
85 = 91, 164
89 = next 2nd
91 = 137, 213, next 3rd
117 = 120, 229
123, 198 = 137, 141
141 = 156, 210
150 = 158, 221
164 = 222, next 5th
174 = 235, next 5th
202 = 216, next 6th
222 = next 6th
237 = next 7th

Values for trading down

Here's the same list (minus the Patriots' 1995 trade from 231 to 234 and the Packers' 1997 trade from 193 to 213) in order of the highest pick traded by the team that traded down —

1 = 4, 65, next 1st, next 5th
1 = 5, 36
1 = 6, 67, 102, 207
3, 63 = 11, 41, 70, 100
3 = 12, 24, 119, 154
4 = 13, 22, 116
5 = 7, 83
5 = 12, 71, 107, 144, 179, 218, next 1st, next 3rd
6 = 7, 37
6 = 12, 63
6 = 8, 75, next 6th
6 = 8, 104
6, 37, 102 = 17, 18, 54
7, 191 = 9, 82, 222
7, 164 = 10, 78
7, 72 = 12, 43, 63
7 = 12, 71, 106, 143, next 3rd
7 = 15, 56, 100
8 = 26, 71, 89, 125
9 = 17, 48, 109
10 = 15, 45
10 = 30, 94, 119, next 1st
11 = 14, 83
11 = 15, 68
12 = 13, 144
12 = 13, 181
12 = 16, 48
13 = 14, 193
13 = 16, next 3rd
13 = 18, 83, 201
13, 110 = 18, 91, 116, 181
13 = 19, 75
14 = 15, 110
14 = 21, 51
14, 191 = 25, 59, 164
15, 76 = 17, 66, 136
15 = 30, 62
16 = 20, 89
16 = 27, 92, 200
16 = 28, 58
17 = 18, 158
17 = 19, 191
17 = 20, 82, 191
17 = 21, 86, 198
17 = 21, 91
18 = 20, 116
18 = 21, 89
18 = 26, 89, 173
19 = 20, 119
19 = 21, 195
19 = 29, 60
19 = 31, 97, 134, next 4th
19 = 41, next 1st
19 = 43, 109, next 1st
20 = 22, 140
20 = 26, 81
20, 156 = 28, 60
21 = 32, 96, 234
21, 84, 154 = 34, 48, 103
22 = 25, 155, next 3rd
22 = 30, 91, 193
22, 188 = 32, 63, 173
22 = 36, next 1st
22 = 37, 68
22 = 43, 144, next 1st
23 = 26, 105
23 = 26, 162
23, 217 = 28, 62
23 = 34, 59
24 = 26, 123
24 = 27, 134
25 = 28, 163, 235
25 = 32, 96, 129
25 = 76, next 1st, next 4th
26 = 36, 87, 159
26, 162 = 41, 73, 83
26 = 42, 73
27 = 39, 70, 142
27, 159 = 40, 71, 103, 138
28 = 110, next 1st
28 = 31, 127
28 = 41, 63
29 = 34, 98, 100
29, 90 = 38, 69, 125
29 = 40, next 2nd
29, 112 = 46, 54, 94, 213
30 = 36, 105, next 5th
30 = 36, 113
30 = 37, 67
33 = 36, 120
33 = 38, 105
33 = 40, 71
34 = 43, 74
35 = 53, 189, next 2nd
36, 117 = 41, 75
36 = 52, 75
37 = 40, 118
37 = 40, 144
37 = 41, 113
37, 139 = 47, 93, 148
37 = 52, 81
37 = 62, 93, 167, next 3rd
37 = next 1st
38 = 40, 173
38 = 44, 107
38 = 55, 86
39 = 45, 116
39 = 50, 112
40, 102 = 47, 78, 111
40, 164 = 47, 124, 199
41 = 44, 121
41 = 46, 110
41, 82, 110, 138 = 48, next 1st
41 = 56, 87, 149
41 = 58, 81
41 = next 1st
42 = 126, next 1st
42 = next 1st
43, 111 = next 1st
43 = 1st in two years
43, 152 = 47, 117
43 = 54, 84, next 6th
44 = 49, 107
44 = 56, 87
44 = 59, 73, 163
45 = 50, 120
45 = 53, 114
45 = 54, 121
46 = 52, 117
47, 235 = 63, 89, 191
48 = 50, 151
48 = 50, 173
49 = 53, 189, 211
49 = 60, 99
49 = 68, 105
51 = 57, 120
51 = 58, 110
51 = 75, 110
51 = next 1st
52 = 55, 125
52 = 56, 122
52 = 58, 158, next 7th
52, 96 = 56, 87
53, 195 = 67, 103, 178
53 = 70, 81
53 = 84, 149, 175, 190
54 = 65, 101
55 = 57, 190, 227
55 = 65, 100, 213
55 = 70, 102
56 = 61, 165
57 = 76, 124, 149
58 = 66, 145
59 = 1st in two years
59, 161 = 68, 141, 173
60 = 79, 143, 172
60, 99 = 79, 98, 134, 150
61 = 68, 135
61 = 69, 102
61 = 74, 101
61 = 78, 114
63, 129 = 72, 104, 140
64 = 66, 176
64, 132 = 79, 84
64 = 82, 104
64 = 83, 95
64 = 84, 195, next 3rd
65 = 67, 195
65 = 73, 127
65 = 76, 115, 228
65 = 89, 115, 121
67 = 73, 145
67 = 88, 191, 229, next 6th
69 = 160, next 2nd
69 = 86, 119
70 = 72, 232
70 = 82, 115
70 = 85, 116
71 = 76, 220
71 = 84, 188
72 = 81, 152
72 = 86, 118
73 = 232, next 2nd
76 = 86, 119, 195
77 = 86, 156
78 = next 2nd
79 = 89, 118
79 = 94, 127
80 = 92, 125
80 = 94, 152
81, 151 = 139, next 2nd
82 = 108, 120, 227
82 = 88, 155
83, 262 = next 2nd
84 = 90, 160
85 = 91, 164
86 = 101, 166, 203
86 = 119, 154
87 = 102, 153
88, 187 = next 2nd
89 = 115, 126
89 = next 2nd
91 = 137, 213, next 3rd
91 = 211, next 3rd
92 = 100, 156
92 = 111, next 4th
93 = 103, 124, 154
93 = 109, 183
94 = 102, 175
96 = 112, 139
96 = 112, 155
96 = 99, 171
97 = 112, 137
98 = 108, 132
98, next 7th = 113, 125
99 = 110, 138
99 = 110, 146
100 = 104, 213
102 = 106, 182
102 = 112, 142
102 = 113, 162
103 = 124, 157
104 = 112, 147
104 = 122, 155
104 = 125, 150, 225
104 = next 3rd
107 = 116, 165
107 = 121, 135
107 = 123, 163
109 = 113, 191
109 = 115, 185
110 = 115, 208
111 = 121, 196
111 = 122, 159, 235
111 = next 3rd
111 = next 3rd
112 = 119, 156
112 = 119, 192
112 = 120, 154
112 = 121, 170, 173
112 = next 3rd
115, 175 = 120, 158
116 = next 3rd
117 = 120, 229
117 = 131, 144
117 = 139, 154
119 = 147, next 5th
120 = 126, 169
120 = 128, 157
121 = 176, 233, next 3rd
122 = 147, 189
123 = 127, 185
123 = 130, 194
123 = 136, next 6th
123, 198 = 137, 141
123 = 157, 166, 203
126 = 167, 175, 245
128 = 137, 217
132, next 6th = 148, next 4th
135 = 161, 162
137 = 150, 209
137 = 199, 203, 215
137 = next 4th
138 = 150, 189
138 = 152, 226
138 = 158, 195
138 = 162, 197
138 = 215, next 4th
138 = next 4th
140 = 180, 222
141 = 156, 210
143 = 155, 213
143 = 176, 193, 218
144 = 146, 218
144 = 155, 231
145 = 154, 186
145, 206 = next 4th
146, 163 = next 3rd
146, 218 = next 3rd
147 = 165, 203
148 = next 4th
149 = 180, 216
149 = 194, 198, 203
150, 200 = 153, 189
150 = 158, 221
150 = 170, 209
152 = 156, next 6th
153 = 160, 222
153 = 160, 238
154, 225 = 164, 201, 243
154 = 175, 231
156 = 182, 206
157 = next 4th
157, 228 = 168, 180
159 = 175, 210
164 = 222, next 5th
165 = 179, 218
166 = 185, 244
168 = 237, next 5th
169, 219 = 208, 210, 248
170 = 187, 191
170 = next 5th
174 = 184, 207
174 = 186, 219
174 = 235, next 5th
175 = 195, 246
175 = 230, next 5th
179 = 188, 226
181 = 226, 247
182 = 195, 233
182 = 205, 223
191 = next 5th
191 = next 6th
192 = next 5th
195 = 200, 234
197 = 213, 236
200 = next 6th
202 = 216, next 6th
207 = 221, 253
209, 225 = 223, 232, 254
212 = next 6th
215, 219, 226 = next 4th
215 = next 6th
222 = next 6th
231 = next 6th
237 = next 6th
237 = next 7th
238 = next 6th
238 = next 6th
245 = next 6th

Values for trading up

Here's the same list (minus the Patriots' 1995 trade from 231 to 234 and the Packers' 1997 trade from 193 to 213) in order of the highest pick traded by the team that traded up —

4, 65, next 1st, next 5th = 1
5, 36 = 1
6, 67, 102, 207 = 1
7, 83 = 5
7, 37 = 6
8, 75, next 6th = 6
8, 104 = 6
9, 82, 222 = 7, 191
10, 78 = 7, 164
11, 41, 70, 100 = 3, 63
12, 24, 119, 154 = 3
12, 71, 107, 144, 179, 218, next 1st, next 3rd = 5
12, 63 = 6
12, 43, 63 = 7, 72
12, 71, 106, 143, next 3rd = 7
13, 22, 116 = 4
13, 144 = 12
13, 181 = 12
14, 83 = 11
14, 193 = 13
15, 56, 100 = 7
15, 45 = 10
15, 68 = 11
15, 110 = 14
16, 48 = 12
16, next 3rd = 13
17, 18, 54 = 6, 37, 102
17, 48, 109 = 9
17, 66, 136 = 15, 76
18, 83, 201 = 13
18, 91, 116, 181 = 13, 110
18, 158 = 17
19, 75 = 13
19, 191 = 17
20, 89 = 16
20, 82, 191 = 17
20, 116 = 18
20, 119 = 19
21, 51 = 14
21, 86, 198 = 17
21, 91 = 17
21, 89 = 18
21, 195 = 19
22, 140 = 20
25, 59, 164 = 14, 191
25, 155, next 3rd = 22
26, 71, 89, 125 = 8
26, 89, 173 = 18
26, 81 = 20
26, 105 = 23
26, 162 = 23
26, 123 = 24
27, 92, 200 = 16
27, 134 = 24
28, 58 = 16
28, 60 = 20, 156
28, 62 = 23, 217
28, 163, 235 = 25
29, 60 = 19
30, 94, 119, next 1st = 10
30, 62 = 15
30, 91, 193 = 22
31, 97, 134, next 4th = 19
31, 127 = 28
32, 96, 234 = 21
32, 63, 173 = 22, 188
32, 96, 129 = 25
34, 48, 103 = 21, 84, 154
34, 59 = 23
34, 98, 100 = 29
36, next 1st = 22
36, 87, 159 = 26
36, 105, next 5th = 30
36, 113 = 30
36, 120 = 33
37, 68 = 22
37, 67 = 30
38, 69, 125 = 29, 90
38, 105 = 33
39, 70, 142 = 27
40, 71, 103, 138 = 27, 159
40, next 2nd = 29
40, 71 = 33
40, 118 = 37
40, 144 = 37
40, 173 = 38
41, next 1st = 19
41, 73, 83 = 26, 162
41, 63 = 28
41, 75 = 36, 117
41, 113 = 37
42, 73 = 26
43, 109, next 1st = 19
43, 144, next 1st = 22
43, 74 = 34
44, 107 = 38
44, 121 = 41
45, 116 = 39
46, 54, 94, 213 = 29, 112
46, 110 = 41
47, 93, 148 = 37, 139
47, 78, 111 = 40, 102
47, 124, 199 = 40, 164
47, 117 = 43, 152
48, next 1st = 41, 82, 110, 138
49, 107 = 44
50, 112 = 39
50, 120 = 45
50, 151 = 48
50, 173 = 48
52, 75 = 36
52, 81 = 37
52, 117 = 46
53, 189, next 2nd = 35
53, 114 = 45
53, 189, 211 = 49
54, 84, next 6th = 43
54, 121 = 45
55, 86 = 38
55, 125 = 52
56, 87, 149 = 41
56, 87 = 44
56, 122 = 52
56, 87 = 52, 96
57, 120 = 51
57, 190, 227 = 55
58, 81 = 41
58, 110 = 51
58, 158, next 7th = 52
59, 73, 163 = 44
60, 99 = 49
61, 165 = 56
62, 93, 167, next 3rd = 37
63, 89, 191 = 47, 235
65, 101 = 54
65, 100, 213 = 55
66, 145 = 58
66, 176 = 64
67, 103, 178 = 53, 195
67, 195 = 65
68, 105 = 49
68, 141, 173 = 59, 161
68, 135 = 61
69, 102 = 61
70, 81 = 53
70, 102 = 55
72, 104, 140 = 63, 129
72, 232 = 70
73, 127 = 65
73, 145 = 67
74, 101 = 61
75, 110 = 51
76, next 1st, next 4th = 25
76, 124, 149 = 57
76, 115, 228 = 65
76, 220 = 71
78, 114 = 61
79, 143, 172 = 60
79, 98, 134, 150 = 60, 99
79, 84 = 64, 132
81, 152 = 72
82, 104 = 64
82, 115 = 70
83, 95 = 64
84, 149, 175, 190 = 53
84, 195, next 3rd = 64
84, 188 = 71
85, 116 = 70
86, 119 = 69
86, 118 = 72
86, 119, 195 = 76
86, 156 = 77
88, 191, 229, next 6th = 67
88, 155 = 82
89, 115, 121 = 65
89, 118 = 79
90, 160 = 84
91, 164 = 85
92, 125 = 80
94, 127 = 79
94, 152 = 80
99, 171 = 96
100, 156 = 92
101, 166, 203 = 86
102, 153 = 87
102, 175 = 94
103, 124, 154 = 93
104, 213 = 100
106, 182 = 102
108, 120, 227 = 82
108, 132 = 98
109, 183 = 93
110, next 1st = 28
110, 138 = 99
110, 146 = 99
111, next 4th = 92
112, 139 = 96
112, 155 = 96
112, 137 = 97
112, 142 = 102
112, 147 = 104
113, 125 = 98, next 7th
113, 162 = 102
113, 191 = 109
115, 126 = 89
115, 185 = 109
115, 208 = 110
116, 165 = 107
119, 154 = 86
119, 156 = 112
119, 192 = 112
120, 154 = 112
120, 158 = 115, 175
120, 229 = 117
121, 135 = 107
121, 196 = 111
121, 170, 173 = 112
122, 155 = 104
122, 159, 235 = 111
123, 163 = 107
124, 157 = 103
125, 150, 225 = 104
126, next 1st = 42
126, 169 = 120
127, 185 = 123
128, 157 = 120
130, 194 = 123
131, 144 = 117
136, next 6th = 123
137, 213, next 3rd = 91
137, 141 = 123, 198
137, 217 = 128
139, next 2nd = 81, 151
139, 154 = 117
146, 218 = 144
147, next 5th = 119
147, 189 = 122
148, next 4th = 132, next 6th
150, 209 = 137
150, 189 = 138
152, 226 = 138
153, 189 = 150, 200
154, 186 = 145
155, 213 = 143
155, 231 = 144
156, 210 = 141
156, next 6th = 152
157, 166, 203 = 123
158, 195 = 138
158, 221 = 150
160, next 2nd = 69
160, 222 = 153
160, 238 = 153
161, 162 = 135
162, 197 = 138
164, 201, 243 = 154, 225
165, 203 = 147
167, 175, 245 = 126
168, 180 = 157, 228
170, 209 = 150
175, 231 = 154
175, 210 = 159
176, 233, next 3rd = 121
176, 193, 218 = 143
179, 218 = 165
180, 222 = 140
180, 216 = 149
182, 206 = 156
184, 207 = 174
185, 244 = 166
186, 219 = 174
187, 191 = 170
188, 226 = 179
194, 198, 203 = 149
195, 246 = 175
195, 233 = 182
199, 203, 215 = 137
200, 234 = 195
205, 223 = 182
208, 210, 248 = 169, 219
211, next 3rd = 91
213, 236 = 197
215, next 4th = 138
216, next 6th = 202
221, 253 = 207
222, next 5th = 164
223, 232, 254 = 209, 225
226, 247 = 181
230, next 5th = 175
232, next 2nd = 73
235, next 5th = 174
237, next 5th = 168
next 1st = 37
next 1st = 41
next 1st = 42
next 1st = 43, 111
next 1st = 51
next 2nd = 78
next 2nd = 83, 262
next 2nd = 88, 187
next 2nd = 89
next 3rd = 104
next 3rd = 111
next 3rd = 111
next 3rd = 112
next 3rd = 116
next 3rd = 146, 163
next 3rd = 146, 218
next 4th = 137
next 4th = 138
next 4th = 145, 206
next 4th = 148
next 4th = 157
next 4th = 215, 219, 226
next 5th = 170
next 5th = 191
next 5th = 192
next 6th = 191
next 6th = 200
next 6th = 212
next 6th = 215
next 6th = 222
next 6th = 231
next 6th = 237
next 6th = 238
next 6th = 238
next 6th = 245
next 7th = 237
1st in two years = 43
1st in two years = 59

Edited March 21, 2011: A 2007 trade was originally noted as "14 = 25, 59, 164." It actually was "14, 191 = 25, 59, 164." ESPN.com's Mike Sando gets the credit for spotting the error.

Should comp picks affect teams' personnel decisions?

2010-04-04T19:36:00.000-07:00

When the Seattle Seahawks signed Unrestricted Free Agent special-teamer Sean Morey to a three-year contract last week, ESPN.com blogger Mike Sando noticed that the Seahawks might have cost themselves a compensatory draft pick in 2011 while also giving the rival Arizona Cardinals a comp pick for the loss of Morey.

Based on speculation by ESPN.com reporter John Clayton, Sando said Morey might cost the Seahawks a sixth-round comp pick that they could have gotten for losing Cory Redding to the Baltimore Ravens. Clayton's speculation might be a bit optimistic. Redding signed for $2.5 million per season, not the $3 million that Clayton reported, so he would be on the borderline for a sixth- or seventh-round pick, depending on his playing time in 2010. (Clayton's speculation that the Seahawks could get a fourth-round comp pick for Nate Burleson might be optimistic, too. Burleson's $5 million-per-year contract would put him on the borderline for a fourth- or fifth-round pick, depending on playing time.)

It's true that Morey could cost the Seahawks a comp pick if their list of qualifying players lost (Burleson and Redding) and signed (Morey) does not change, but is it really a poor decision for a team to forgo what might be a late seventh-round draft pick in order to sign a former Pro Bowl special-teamer? Even if Redding ends up with a sixth-round value in the comp picks formula, how likely is it that a late sixth-round draft choice will be more than a special-teams contributor, anyway? Yes, a team could strike gold with a late sixth-round choice, but it's also possible that the player taken with that pick won't even make the team. Morey, on the other hand, is a known commodity. The Seahawks very well might have taken potential comp picks into account and decided that Morey would be worth more than the comp pick they might get for losing Redding.

The Seahawks' situation might not be the best example of a team costing itself a comp pick because of a poor decision in free agency, but it does raise the issue of whether teams should factor comp picks into their personnel decisions. Sando noted that "the Cardinals' decision to sign UFA fullback Jason Wright might have cost the team a 2010 third- or fourth-round compensatory choice for losing Antonio Smith." Based on the fact that Baltimore received a third-rounder for Dominique Foxworth, the Cardinals surely would have gotten a third-rounder for Smith.

After this year's comp picks were awarded, Darren Urban, who blogs for the Cardinals' official Web site, responded to one fan's criticism of the team's front office by saying, "If you are managing your free agency based on hoping for a certain comp pick, you aren’t running your football team correctly." I would agree with Urban, to some extent. In fact, I would argue that it wasn't the Cardinals' decision to sign Wright in free agency that cost them a third-round comp pick, rather it was their decision to keep the third-string running back on their roster past Week 9. When they signed Wright in March 2009, they couldn't have known if, for example, they would be able to draft Beanie Wells a month later, or if Wells or Tim Hightower would get hurt early in the season and force Wright to get more playing time. But by Week 9, the Cardinals had Wells and Hightower carrying the load at running back and Wright contributing very little on offense while playing a fair amount on special teams. If they had waived Wright at that point in the season, he would not have counted in the comp picks equation, and the Cardinals would have received that third-round comp pick for losing Smith. Instead, they kept Wright all season. After Week 9, including the playoffs, he had only nine touches for 53 yards on offense, although he did play more than half of the snaps on special teams. Is that type of production from a six-year veteran worth a late third-round draft pick? I don't think it is. Wright is unlikely to develop into anything more than the player he is right now, but a player drafted in the third round is reasonably likely to develop into someone who can contribute more than Wright will – possibly much more. And if the Cardinals had waived Wright and either Wells or Hightower had gotten injured later in the season, the Cardinals could have simply re-signed Wright if no other team had claimed him or signed him by then.

The Cardinals might argue that they were in the hunt for a playoff spot, a division title or even a championship, and getting rid of a trusted veteran who provides depth at running back and contributes on special teams wouldn't help them achieve their ultimate goal. Whether that's a good enough reason to forgo a third-round comp pick is debatable, but it at least can be taken into consideration when judging the Cardinals' decision.

Clearly, releasing a player in midseason just to get a high comp pick the next year is not the best move for every team. The Dallas Cowboys, for example, were not going to release Igor Olshansky, Keith Brooking or Gerald Sensabaugh in Week 9 just to make sure that they would get a fourth-round comp pick for losing Chris Canty. Having a solid defensive starter during a playoff run is more important than obtaining a late fourth-round draft choice the following year.

There are times, though, when a team probably should make comp picks a factor in their personnel decisions. The Oakland Raiders, for example, had a 2-6 record when they went into their bye in Week 9 last season. During the previous offseason, they had lost only one free agent who could qualify for the comp pick equation: Jake Grove, whose contract almost certainly would (and did) give him a fourth-round value. They had signed three players who might have qualified, but after releasing Jeff Garcia and Lorenzo Neal before the season, they only one remaining on the team was Khalif Barnes, an offensive tackle who was signed to a one-year contract. Before the Raiders' bye week, Barnes filled in – not very well, by most accounts – as the starter at right tackle for two games while Cornell Green was out with a calf injury. After Week 9, Barnes was inactive for every game except the season finale, when he didn't even play. In retrospect, the Raiders certainly would have been better off releasing Barnes during their bye week. Barnes was under contract for only eight more games, Green was returning to the lineup, the season already was a lost cause, and the Raiders had two other backup tackles who either had started ahead of Barnes earlier in the season (Erik Pears) or would replace Barnes as the backup tackle who was activated for games after the bye (Langston Walker). If the Raiders had taken their potential comp pick into account, there would have been little reason for them to keep Barnes for the rest of the season, but that's what they did. So instead of receiving the 131st pick of the draft as compensation for losing Grove, they received the 251st pick as compensation for the difference in net value after losing Grove and signing Barnes. The Raiders fell 120 spots in the draft by keeping Barnes, who never played another snap for the rest of the season.

As I mentioned, I think Urban is mostly correct when he says that teams shouldn't manage their free agency just to get comp picks. Every team's goal during the offseason should be to acquire better players through any means possible, which would include signing Unrestricted Free Agents. If signing a quality starter would cost a team a potential fourth-round comp pick, so be it. However, it would be foolish for teams not to include comp picks in the decision-making process and even more foolish for teams to be unaware of their potential comp picks. If a team that stands to gain a high comp pick the following season is looking at signing either a UFA who would qualify for the comp picks equation or a player who was released by his former team and therefore would not qualify, the released player likely would be the better choice if the players were considered relatively equal – especially if the players under consideration would be mere backups. Potential comp picks are an even more important factor when the player being signed has a value that is far less than that of the player that was lost, such as in the case of the Cardinals and Raiders. In those cases, the team should be able to recognize that the low-value player could end up costing a high comp pick. That's why it would be wise for teams to monitor their potential comp picks during the regular season and consider making personnel moves before Week 10 to ensure that they aren't unnecessarily costing themselves a high draft pick by keeping a player who won't even contribute. A team could always decide that it wants to keep a certain player even if he might be worth less than the potential comp pick it will be forgoing, but any team that never takes potential comp picks into consideration is likely to end up costing itself valuable draft picks without even knowing it.

Do NFL teams know the formula for comp picks?

2010-03-24T09:02:00.000-07:00

One question I'm frequently asked is whether NFL teams know the formula that is used to determine the compensatory draft picks — and in this instance, by "formula," I mean all of the rules for qualification, the rules for determining players' values, the rules for determining the rounds for every pick and any special rules that would affect the comp picks.

Some people assume that the teams have been given the rules or even the entire formula and that it remains a secret only to those of us in the general public. However, although some teams probably have much of the formula figured out, it's obvious that many teams do not know how the NFL determines the comp picks. Every year, we see examples of teams hoping to get certain comp picks that they don't end up getting and examples of teams expressing surprise or confusion after the comp picks are awarded.

This year, Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said he expected his team to receive three comp picks. An article on the Falcons' Web site quoted Dimitroff as saying, "That was one of the reasons that we were able to decide on doing that Tony Gonzalez trade, because we knew that we were going to be set up to possibly guard our three compensatory draft picks with some of the free agents we lost. As it stands right now, I’m thinking we possibly will get three compensatory picks, given the play of Domonique Foxworth, Michael Boley and Keith Brooking. Those are the three that I think are going to factor in strongly into our compensatory acquisitions.” In addition, The Atlanta Journal Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter reported that Dimitroff said that Mike Peterson would not count as a player signed by the Falcons. When the comp picks were announced, however, the Falcons received only two of them, and Peterson did count in the formula.

On the Jacksonville Jaguars' Web site, senior editor Vic Ketchman reported that Jaguars GM Gene Smith was "hopeful of receiving two" comp picks this year. The Jaguars, who lost three qualifying players and signed two, received only one comp pick.

And in an article on the Cincinnati Bengals' Web site, team president Mike Brown acknowledged that his team went years without knowing how to get comp picks. "Over the whole history of compensatory choices, we went many years without any and being slow to figure things out," Brown said. "We finally did and in recent years we’ve been the recipient of them."

We could find many more examples from previous seasons, but clearly, whatever information the NFL teams have been given regarding comp picks is not sufficient for all of them to know how many picks they'll be getting — or even if they'll be getting any — let alone the placement of those picks.

For teams to know what comp picks will be awarded, they have to try to project them based on whatever information they have. As Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson found out, though, that is no easy task. Thompson was quoted in an article at ESPNMilwaukee.com as saying that he and former GM Ron Wolf became so frustrated when they tried to project the comp picks that they gave up on it.

“A long time ago, I decided I wasn’t going to try to predict,” Thompson said. “Ron and I used to try to figure it out, and it would wind up making him really mad and me sort of mad. Some people think they have cracked the code, and that’s OK, (but) I don’t have time for that. Somebody will tell us.”

Comparing 2010 projection to the actual comp picks

2010-03-22T18:06:00.000-07:00

Below is a chart showing a comparison of my projections to the comp picks the NFL awarded today. Picks shaded green are those that I projected in the correct round, and picks shaded yellow are those on which I was off by one round. Although I correctly projected Tampa Bay to get a seventh-round pick, I projected it to be a non-compensatory pick, but it turned out to be a net-value pick, so I'm not counting it as a correct pick. I'm also not counting Miami's net-value pick in the seventh round as being off by one round, even though I projected the Dolphins to receive a sixth-round pick.

(Click on the image to see a larger version.)

In the third round, I had the picks for Tennessee and Cincinnati switched. I'll try to figure out why Albert Haynesworth's contract value used in the formula was so low.

In the fourth round, Cincinnati got a pick for Stacy Andrews because Laveranues Coles did not count in the equation. Although I projected Coles to count, I did say that the Bengals probably would get a fourth for Andrews if Coles did not count.

In the fifth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I missed the next three because the cutoff point for the fifth round did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. The lower cutoff point bumped the picks for Minnesota and Green Bay into the fifth round and gave San Diego a fifth for Igor Olshansky instead of a seventh for Mike Goff, as I explained in my projections.

In the sixth round, I had the first three picks correct and in the correct order, but I again missed the next three because the cutoff point did not increase nearly as much as I projected — if at all. In addition, Miami did not get the sixth I projected, because Joe Berger qualified for the equation and I did not project him to qualify.

In the seventh round, I again missed several because players qualified who were not projected to qualify (namely Mark Jones, Hunter Smith, Larry Izzo and Brandon McGowan). In addition, it appears that I need to change the playing time I use for special-teamers (in this case, Hunter Smith and Lonie Paxton). I missed the net-value pick for Miami because Berger qualified, and I missed the net-value pick for Tampa Bay because Angelo Crowell did not, possibly because he was on Injured Reserve for every game of the only season of his contract.

Using the correct cutoff points and the correct playing time for special-teamers, I've been able to recreate the order of all but the first two comp picks of the third round. Figuring out why Tennessee's third-round comp pick for Haynesworth was not the highest pick should help me learn more about what elements in a contract are not included in the formula.

I'll post more as I continue to analyze this year's comp picks.

Looking at the qualifiers and non-qualifiers

2010-03-22T14:59:00.000-07:00

To see who officially qualified for the compensatory picks equation this year, click here and scroll down.

As you can tell, the NFL did not include Laveranues Coles in the equation. I suspected that this would happen (click here and scroll to the bottom of the post), but I did not project it because there was no precedent set for disqualifying a player whose contract had voided. (EDIT: Coles' disqualification from the equation was not simply because his "contract was voided last offseason." Many players have qualified after having their contract voided. Coles' voided contract was different, though, because the void was renegotiated into the contract after the end of the final regular season that he played for the Jets. On Feb. 25, 2009, Coles renegotiated his contract to include the void. Two days later, it voided, and he became a true Unrestricted Free Agent. Apparently, and even though the Jets reportedly claimed that Coles would qualify, that method of becoming a true UFA didn't satisfy the requirements for qualification.)

Surprisingly, Angelo Crowell did not qualify, either.

In addition, all four of the players I projected to be just below the qualifying bubble -- Joe Berger, Hunter Smith, Mark Jones and Larry Izzo -- did, in fact qualify. This fact and the fact that several picks ended up one round higher than projected mean that the NFL didn't raise the cutoff points nearly as much as I had projected.

I'll have more analysis later.

UPDATE: Brandon McGowan actually qualified as a player signed by New England, even though his contract value that counts in the formula was only $765,000 per season. I'll try to figure out why.

This year's comp picks mystery

2010-03-22T14:46:00.000-07:00

Last year, the biggest mystery surrounding the comp picks concerned Alan Faneca and why the Pittsburgh Steelers got only a fifth-round comp pick for him.

This year, the biggest mystery seems to be why Angelo Crowell did not count as a player signed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was a true UFA last offseason, he signed on March 18, and he signed for $2.5 million (plus incentives) for one season. Yes, he spent the entire season on Injured Reserve, but players who were on IR have qualified in the past. Perhaps it is because he signed a one-year contract and spent that season on IR. If that is the case, however, would he also be disqualified from the equation next year if he leaves this offseason? Or could he actually count as a player lost after not counting as a player signed?

Another mystery is how the NFL deemed T.J. Houshmandzadeh's value to be greater than Albert Haynesworth's value, which is the reason that Cincinnati got a higher third-round comp pick than Tennessee. Perhaps a big chunk of the money in Haynesworth's contract doesn't count in the formula. I'll take a closer look and see what I can find.

Complete list of 2010 comp picks

2010-03-22T14:26:00.000-07:00

As expected, the NFL announced the compensatory picks today. I got 21 correct and was off by one round on five more. I'm not counting Tampa Bay's net value comp pick in the seventh round as a correct projection, because I projected it to be a non-compensatory seventh-rounder. (To see the projections I posted on March 8, click here.) I'll provide an analysis of this year's comp picks as soon as I can.

Here are the 2010 compensatory draft picks, along with the qualifying players signed and lost for each team that received a comp pick --

3 33-96 Cincinnati
3 34-97 Tennessee
3 35-98 Atlanta
4 33-131 Cincinnati
5 33-164 Pittsburgh
5 34-165 Atlanta
5 35-166 Pittsburgh
5 36-167 Minnesota
5 37-168 San Diego
5 38-169 Green Bay
6 33-202 Carolina
6 34-203 Jacksonville
6 35-204 Carolina
6 36-205 New England
6 37-206 San Francisco
6 38-207 Tennessee
7 33-240 Indianapolis
7 34-241 Tennessee
7 35-242 Pittsburgh
7 36-243 Philadelphia
7 37-244 Philadelphia
7 38-245 Seattle
7 39-246 Indianapolis
7 40-247 New England
7 41-248 New England
7 42-249 Carolina
7 43-250 New England
7 44-251 Oakland (net value)
7 45-252 Miami (net value)
7 46-253 Tampa Bay (net value)
7 47-254 St. Louis (non-compensatory)
7 48-255 Detroit (non-compensatory)

And here are the official qualifying players for each team that received a true comp pick or net-value comp pick --

ATLANTA

Lost: Michael Boley, Keith Brooking, Domonique Foxworth, Grady Jackson

Signed: Mike Peterson, Brett Romberg

CAROLINA

Lost: Geoff Hangartner, Mark Jones, Frank Omiyale

CINCINNATI

Lost: Stacy Andrews, Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Signed: J.T. O’Sullivan

GREEN BAY

Lost: Colin Cole

INDIANAPOLIS

Lost: Darrell Reid, Hunter Smith

JACKSONVILLE

Lost: Khalif Barnes, Mike Peterson, Gerald Sensabaugh

Signed: Sean Considine, Tra Thomas

MIAMI

Lost: Andre’ Goodman, Renaldo Hill

Signed: Joe Berger, Jake Grove

MINNESOTA

Lost: Matt Birk, Darren Sharper

Signed: Karl Paymah

NEW ENGLAND

Lost: Heath Evans, Jabar Gaffney, Larry Izzo, LaMont Jordan, Lonie Paxton

Signed: Brandon McGowan

OAKLAND

Lost: Jake Grove

Signed: Khalif Barnes

PHILADELPHIA

Lost: Correll Buckhalter, Sean Considine, Brian Dawkins, L.J. Smith, Tra Thomas

Signed: Stacy Andrews, Sean Jones, Leonard Weaver

PITTSBURGH

Lost: Byron Leftwich, Bryant McFadden, Nate Washington

SAN DIEGO

Lost: Mike Goff, Igor Olshansky

Signed: Kevin Burnett

SAN FRANCISCO

Lost: Ronald Fields, Bryant Johnson, J.T. O’Sullivan, Donald Strickland

Signed: Demetric Evans, Brandon Jones, Moran Norris

SEATTLE

Lost: Rocky Bernard, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver, Floyd Womack

Signed: Colin Cole, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, John Owens

TAMPA BAY

Lost: Phillip Buchanon, Jovan Haye

Signed: Byron Leftwich, Derrick Ward

TENNESSEE

Lost: Chris Carr, Albert Haynesworth, Brandon Jones, Eric King, Daniel Loper, Chris Simms

Signed: Jovan Haye, Mark Jones, Nate Washington

Comp picks appear to be out

2010-03-22T13:40:00.000-07:00

There are reports of some teams receiving their comp picks today. If the report of the Bengals' comp picks is true, it looks as though Laveranues Coles did not count in the equation.

I'll post more when I find the complete list.

UPDATE: Those reported so far are a third and a fourth for Cincinnati, a third and a fifth for Atlanta and a seventh for Tampa Bay (likely a non-compensatory pick).

MORE UPDATES: Also reported are a third for Tennessee, a sixth and three sevenths for New England, two sixths and a seventh for Carolina (which means that Mark Jones did qualify), and two fifths and a seventh for Pittsburgh.

It looks like the cutoff points for qualifying and for the rounds increased by less than I projected.

Comp picks could be announced today

2010-03-22T00:18:00.000-07:00

The NFL doesn't reveal ahead of time when the compensatory draft picks will be announced, but if the league follows the same timetable as in recent years, the announcement should come today.

The comp picks typically have been announced on the second day of the Annual Meeting, which started Sunday in Orlando, Fla. Last year, when the Annual Meeting was held in California, the picks were announced just after 4:30 p.m. Pacific. If the schedule for the second day of the owners' meeting is similar this year, with the meeting being in the Eastern time zone, I would expect the announcement to come about 4:30 p.m. Eastern today. However, the announcement could come at any time today or possibly not until Tuesday.

As soon as I see that the picks have been announced, I will post them here, but they should be available at NFL.com and most major media Web sites just as quickly, if not sooner. I'll also post an analysis as soon as possible and will answer any questions posted in the comments section of this blog. You do not need to register to post a comment.

To review my projections for this year's comp picks, click here.

To see how my projections have fared in previous years, click here.

UPDATE: Joe Reedy, the Bengals beat writer for the Cincinnati Enquirer, reports via his Twitter account that the announcement "could get delayed until tomorrow."

MORE UPDATES: Philly.com, the Charlotte Observer and the official Twitter feed of the Washington Redskins also reported that the announcement is expected to come tomorrow.

Projecting the 2010 Compensatory NFL Draft Picks

2010-03-08T09:22:00.000-08:00

Note: In order to save me the time I could spend visiting numerous forums and message boards answering questions about this year's projections, please direct anyone with questions to this blog. Questions that are posed in the comments section of this post and subsequent related posts will be answered. You do not need to register to comment.

For the ninth consecutive year and 10th overall, I’ve attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past seven projections, I’ve averaged 24.4 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of four more. Last year, I got 26 correct and was off by one round on three more. Unless the NFL has unexpectedly changed the formula, I'm expecting similar results this year. My recent projections also have been successful at projecting much of the exact order of the comp picks, regardless of round, and I'm hoping to have that trend continue as well.

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract value used in the equation does not include some parts of the contract, and that the contract information reported in the media is often incorrect.

Each qualifying player has a value based on his contract, playing time and postseason honors, and that value corresponds to a round in the draft. In the compensatory equation, each qualifying player that a team signs cancels out a qualifying player that the team lost whose value is the highest in the same round. If there are no lost players remaining in that round, the signed player cancels out the lost player whose value is the next-highest. A signed player will cancel out a lost player whose value falls in a higher round only if there are no remaining lost players. After all of a team's qualifying signed players have canceled out a lost player, the team can receive a comp pick for each qualifying player who remains. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value falls in the third round and another qualifying player whose value falls in the sixth round but signs a qualifying player whose value falls in the third round. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value were equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents. That type of comp pick comes at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 14 of these “net value” type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents added. In all 14 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value. This year, I’m projecting that Oakland will receive a net-value comp after losing Jake Grove and signing Khalif Barnes, whose value is less than one-sixth of Grove's value. According to my projections, none of the other teams that lost and signed the same number of qualifying players suffered a loss in value that was significant enough to warrant a net-value comp pick. Arizona came the closest, followed by Baltimore and Buffalo, but they all fell short of the projected loss in value that is necessary to receive a net-value comp pick.

For the third consecutive year, I’ve used a mathematical formula to weight the three factors that determine a player’s value in the comp equation (his contract, his playing time and his postseason awards, if any). Using this formula, I’ve been able to reconstruct almost precisely the order of the comp picks that were awarded in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. In two of those years, I have been able to reconstruct the exact order, and in other year, the only difference was that the order of two consecutive picks was switched because of a minuscule difference in values. I don’t know if I have the factors weighted correctly, but given that my projected order of a number of comp picks has frequently matched the order of the actual comp picks, I think I’m probably pretty close.

As always, please note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula. I don’t pretend to know the actual formula, but I think previous results indicate that the formula I use is a pretty good simulation.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 27 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value or contract value must be above a specific minimum amount; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.

The most difficult part about projecting the comp picks is determining all of the cutoff points – the minimum value needed to qualify and the value ranges for each round of the draft. The comp picks awarded in previous years suggest that the cutoff points increase each year by a small percentage – approximately the same percentage by which the leaguewide salary cap increases. From 2008 to 2009, the cap went up 9.65 percent, so I used a 9.65 percent increase when estimating the cutoff points for this year’s comp picks. In some cases, I used the percentage increases since 2007, 2006 or even 2005 to compare the values of this year's players to the values of qualifying players from previous years whose draft round value is known.

Last year, the lowest-paid player who is known to have qualified for the NFL’s comp equation was Aaron Glenn, who signed for a one-year deal for $870,000 and played a little less than 20 percent of the snaps in 2008. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Pierson Prioleau, who signed a one-year deal for $830,000 and also played a little less than 20 percent of the snaps. This year, there are eight players I consider "on the bubble" for qualifying. Floyd Womack, Jason Wright, Brett Romberg and John Owens each signed for at least $950,000 and should qualify, based on Glenn qualifying last year. Joe Berger, Mark Jones, Hunter Smith and Larry Izzo each signed for between $875,000 and $909,000 and are not projected to qualify, based more on Marcus Wilkins ($816,667) not qualifying for the 2008 comp picks than for Prioleau not qualifying in 2009.

There were two unusual cases this year, one involving Laveranues Coles and one involving Bobby Engram.

Coles renegotiated his contract on Feb. 25, 2009, giving up a $6 million guaranteed salary in exchange for allowing his 2009 season to void. Two days later, his contract voided, and he became an Unrestricted Free Agent. Plenty of players have qualified for the comp equation after becoming UFAs because their contract voided, even if the voidable year was put in the contract through renegotiation. However, Coles' situation is a little less clear because of the timing involved. Normally, a player "earns" a void in his contract by doing something more than simply waiting two days, so it's possible that the NFL will not consider Coles eligible for the comp picks equation. Players who have had contract years simply deleted — not converted to voidable years — by renegotiation have never qualified for the equation, and Coles' situation is close to that. However, because a voidable year has never disqualified a player from the equation, I am projecting that Coles will qualify.

Engram's situation is a little less complicated. He was released by Kansas City on Monday, Nov. 9, which was the last day of Week 9 and the start of Week 10. Previous cases of players being released during the season seem to indicate that players who are released by Week 10 and not claimed off waivers will not qualify for the comp picks equation. For that reason, I am projecting that Engram will not qualify, but because he released close to the deadline, it is possible that he will qualify.

Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.5 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.8 million to $6 million, all but one of the fifth-round comp players had signed for $4 million to $5 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $2.7 million to $3.9 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for less than $2.65 million per season. Note that there are huge gaps between some rounds, and that there is an overlap between the fourth and fifth rounds because of the adjustments for playing time. You’ll find the contract values for each round of this year’s projected picks in the list a few paragraphs below this one.

I mentioned that all but one of last year's fifth-round comp players had signed for $4 million to $5 million. Because of a rule that had never been revealed until after last year's comp picks were awarded, the Pittsburgh Steelers got only a fifth-round comp pick for Alan Faneca, even though he signed for $7.8 million per season, played more than 98 percent of the Jets' offensive snaps and made the Pro Bowl. A rule stipulates that a team cannot receive more than a fifth-round comp pick for a player with 10 or more seasons of NFL experience. After the rule was revealed, I found several times in previous seasons when it had been invoked. What still is not known, however, is whether the rule applies to the player's value in the equation or whether it applies only for the placement of a comp pick. In other words, does it affect which player a 10-year veteran cancels out by being signed or lost, or does it come into play only when a team is due to receive a comp pick for a player with 10 or more seasons of experience? This year, there are no qualifying players with at least 10 years of experience whose value in the formula is higher than a fifth-round pick, so that question will remain unanswered for at least another year.

As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round, until the maximum of 32 has been reached. If there are 29 comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first three picks in the eighth round, if there were one. This year, I’m projecting that 27 true comp picks will be awarded, including Oakland’s comp pick for a net-value loss, which I mentioned earlier. Therefore, I’m projecting that St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Washington will receive non-compensatory picks to fill out the maximum number of picks. If the NFL’s equation results in more than three non-compensatory picks being added, the next five teams in line to receive one would be Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, Buffalo and Chicago, in that order.

Here are the projected picks for 2010, along with the compensatory player, their contract value that was used in the equation, their games played and their games started (I’ve also noted the eight picks that fall near a cutoff point and could end up in a different round, along with two other picks that could be affected by the cutoff points) —

THIRD ROUND

Tennessee (Albert Haynesworth, $11.37 million per season, 12 GP/12 GS)

Cincinnati (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, $8 million, 16/16) — possibly a fourth- or fifth-round pick for Stacy Andrews

Atlanta (Dominique Foxworth, $6.8 million, 16/16) — possibly a fourth-round pick

FOURTH ROUND

None

FIFTH ROUND

Pittsburgh (Bryant McFadden, $4.75 million, 16/16)

Atlanta (Michael Boley, $4.8 million, 11/11)

Pittsburgh (Nate Washington, $4.47 million, 16/15) — possibly a sixth-round pick

SIXTH ROUND

Minnesota (Matt Birk, $4 million, 16/16) — possibly a fifth-round pick

Green Bay (Colin Cole, $4.28 million, 16/15) – possibly a fifth-round pick

Carolina (Geoff Hangartner, $3.15 million, 16/16)

Jacksonville (Mike Peterson, $3 million, 16/16)

Carolina (Frank Omiyale, $2.64 million, 16/12) — possibly a seventh-round pick

Miami (Renaldo Hill, $2.5 million, 15/15) — possibly a seventh-round pick

SEVENTH ROUND

New England (Jabar Gaffney, $2.5 million, 16/7) — possibly a sixth-round pick

Tennessee (Chris Carr, $2.5 million, 16/4) — possibly a sixth-round pick

Indianapolis (Darrell Reid, $2.27 million, 16/0)

Tennessee (Eric King, $2.125 million, 4/1)

Tennessee (Daniel Loper, $2 million, 8/5)

Pittsburgh (Byron Leftwich, $2 million, 3/3)

Philadelphia (Sean Considine, $1.45 million, 11/6)

Philadelphia (L.J. Smith, $1.5 million, 12/0)

San Diego (Mike Goff, $1.35 million, 8/7) — possibly a fifth- or sixth-round pick for Igor Olshansky

San Francisco (Donald Strickland, $1.11 million, 9/2)

New England (Lonie Paxton, $1.03 million, 16/0)

New England (Heath Evans, $1.05 million, 6/5)

Seattle (Floyd Womack, $950,000, 13/9)

New England (LaMont Jordan, $1.01 million, 9/0)

Oakland (net-value comp pick; lost $5.7 million, 12/10; signed $1 million, 6/2)

St. Louis (non-compensatory pick)

Detroit (non-compensatory pick)

Tampa Bay (non-compensatory pick)

Kansas City (non-compensatory pick)

Washington (non-compensatory pick)

As noted, the values of eight comp picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the comp picks for Foxworth is in the fourth round, if the comp picks for Washington is in the sixth round, if the comp picks for Birk and/or Cole are in the fifth round, if the comp picks for Omiyale and/or Hill are in the seventh round or if the comp picks for Gaffney and/or Carr are in the sixth round. Of course, other projected picks could be off by one round (or more) if the NFL happened to change the formula or increase the cutoff points by significantly more or less than I projected.

In addition to those eight picks, two of the other comp picks could be affected by the cutoff points between rounds, if a player who was canceled out has a value in a round different from where I projected their value to be.

For Cincinnati, Laveranues Coles' value as a player signed is projected to be in the fourth round, but there is a chance that his value could be just enough to fall in the third round. If so, his signing will cancel out the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and the Bengals will receive a comp pick for the loss of Stacy Andrews, most likely in the fourth round but possibly in the fifth. In addition, if Coles is disqualified from the equation because his contract was renegotiated to void the 2009 season, the Bengals will receive comp picks for both Houshmandzadeh and Andrews.

For San Diego, Igor Olshanky's value as a player lost is on the borderline of the fifth and sixth rounds, and Kevin Burnett's value as a player signed is on the borderline of the sixth and seventh rounds. My projections put both of them in the sixth round, leaving the Chargers with a seventh-round comp pick for Mike Goff. However, if the values of Olshansky or Burnett – or both – do not fall in the sixth round, the Chargers will receive a comp pick for Olshansky instead of one for Goff. The placement of that pick will depend on whether Olshansky's value falls in the fifth round or the sixth round.

Here are the qualifying players lost and signed (in order of value) for the 16 teams that I’m projecting will receive comp picks, with the projected compensatory players in bold —

ATLANTA

Lost: Dominique Foxworth, Michael Boley, Keith Brooking, Grady Jackson

Signed: Mike Peterson, Brett Romberg

CAROLINA

Lost: Geoff Hangartner, Frank Omiyale

Signed: None

CINCINNATI

Lost: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Stacy Andrews, Ryan Fitzpatrick

Signed: Laveranues Coles, J.T. O’Sullivan

GREEN BAY

Lost: Colin Cole

Signed: None

INDIANAPOLIS

Lost: Darrell Reid

Signed: None

JACKSONVILLE

Lost: Mike Peterson, Gerald Sensabaugh, Khalif Barnes

Signed: Tra Thomas, Sean Considine

MIAMI

Lost: Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill

Signed: Jake Grove

MINNESOTA

Lost: Matt Birk, Darren Sharper

Signed: Karl Paymah

NEW ENGLAND

Lost: Jabar Gaffney, Lonie Paxton, Heath Evans, LaMont Jordan

Signed: None

OAKLAND

Lost: Jake Grove

Signed: Khalif Barnes

PHILADELPHIA

Lost: Brian Dawkins, Tra Thomas, Correll Buckhalter, Sean Considine, L.J. Smith

Signed: Stacy Andrews, Sean Jones, Leonard Weaver

PITTSBURGH

Lost: Bryant McFadden, Nate Washington, Byron Leftwich

Signed: None

SAN DIEGO

Lost: Igor Olshansky, Mike Goff

Signed: Kevin Burnett

SAN FRANCISCO

Lost: Bryant Johnson, Ronald Fields, J.T. O’Sullivan, Donald Strickland

Signed: Brandon Jones, Moran Norris, Demetric Evans

SEATTLE

Lost: Rocky Bernard, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver, Floyd Womack

Signed: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Colin Cole, John Owens

TENNESSEE

Lost: Albert Haynesworth, Brandon Jones, Chris Simms, Chris Carr, Eric King, Daniel Loper

Signed: Nate Washington, Jovan Haye

Anyone else who was lost or signed by one of those teams last offseason is not projected to qualify for the equation, for one reason or another. Remember, players have to meet certain criteria in order to qualify for the equation (see the eighth paragraph of these projections for a summary of the criteria), so a lot of players will not count in the equation. Most of the time, it’s either because the player had been released by his previous team and therefore was not a true UFA or because the player didn’t sign for enough money to qualify.

If I’m wrong about the values of certain players or whether some players will or will not qualify for the equation, that will affect the comp picks. Here’s what would happen in certain instances –

If Laveranues Coles does not qualify, Cincinnati will receive a comp pick for Stacy Andrews in either the fourth or fifth round, most likely the fourth, in addition to the third-round comp pick for T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

If Kevin Burnett's value falls in the seventh round instead of the sixth round, San Diego will receive a comp pick for Igor Olshansky instead of a comp pick for Mike Goff. The comp pick for Olshansky will be in either the fifth or sixth round, between Pittsburgh's comp pick for Nate Washington and Minnesota's comp pick for Matt Birk. Or, if Olshansky's value falls in the fifth round, San Diego will receive a fifth-round comp pick for him, regardless of whether Burnett's value falls in the sixth round or seventh round.

If Bobby Engram qualifies, Seattle will receive a seventh-round comp pick for him immediately before its comp pick for Floyd Womack.

If John Owens does not qualify, Seattle will receive a seventh-round comp pick for Leonard Weaver, between Tennessee's comp picks for Eric King and Daniel Loper.

If Floyd Womack does not qualify, Seattle will not receive a comp pick for him.

If Joe Berger qualifies, Miami will not receive a comp pick for Renaldo Hill.

If Jason Wright does not qualify, Arizona will receive a comp pick for Antonio Smith in either the third round or fourth round, most likely in the third, after Cincinnati's comp pick for T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

If Brett Romberg does not qualify, Atlanta will receive a seventh-round comp pick for Grady Jackson, before Indianapolis' comp pick for Darrell Reid.

If Hunter Smith qualifies, Indianapolis will receive a seventh-round comp pick for him, after New England's comp pick for LaMont Jordan.

If Mark Jones qualifies, Carolina will receive a seventh-round comp pick for him after New England's comp pick for LaMont Jordan (and Indianapolis' comp pick for Hunter Smith, if there is one), and Tennessee will not receive a seventh-round comp pick for Daniel Loper.

If Larry Izzo qualifies, it will not affect the comp picks, because New England already will have received the maximum of four comp picks, but his name will appear on New England's list of qualifying players lost.

If Arizona, Baltimore and/or Buffalo receive net-value comp picks, they would come after Oakland's net-value pick in the seventh round.

Any combination of these additional comp picks and/or fewer comp picks being awarded could increase or reduce the number of non-compensatory picks added to the end of the draft. As I mentioned earlier, the next five teams in line for non-compensatory picks are Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, Buffalo and Chicago.

Under no circumstances will more than 32 picks be awarded, so if I have made numerous significant mistakes and there are more true comp picks than I have projected, one or more of the lowest-valued picks in my projection or in my summary of possible other scenarios might not be awarded, if they’re not one of the 32 highest-valued comp picks. Only the 32 highest-valued comp picks will be awarded.

The NFL typically awards the compensatory picks on the second day of the Annual Meeting, which will be March 22 this year (the meeting will be March 21-24 in Orlando, Fla.). After the comp picks are announced, I’ll review what the NFL did and where my projections were incorrect, although I’ve already presented some other possibilities.

Note: For a look at why any of the 16 other teams are not projected to receive comp picks, click on the team's name to see my preliminary summary for that team — Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington. You also can click here to see the list of every UFA lost or signed who had the potential of qualifying.

Accuracy of previous projections

2010-03-07T22:59:00.000-08:00

I'm in the process of writing up this year's final projections. For now, though, here's a look at the accuracy of my projections in previous years. My first attempt in 1998 was done using very little history on which to base my projections and questionable contract information from media reports. As my sources have gotten better and my information more precise, my projections have gotten much more accurate. Aside from the 2007 comp picks, which were more difficult to project because of the huge jump in the salary cap after the 2006 CBA extension, I've typically gotten 25 or 26 exactly correct and missed by one round on about four others. More precise information also has allowed me to project the exact order of picks in many cases. Although my ultimate goal is to project all 32 comp picks correctly and in the precise order of the actual comp picks, there are too many judgment calls every year to make that reasonably possible. I will, however, keep trying.

Here are the result of my previous comp pick projections (with links to all of the projections since 2002) --

1998 — I projected 23 comps; the NFL awarded 19. I had 15 of them going to the correct team, with 10 going to the correct team in the correct round and three more off by one round.
2002 — 22 correct, four others off by one round
2003 — 26 correct, four others off by one round
2004 — 26 correct, two others off by one round
2005 — 22 correct, six others off by one round
2006 — 26 correct, four others off by one round
2007 — 20 correct, five others off by one round
2008 — 25 correct, four others off by one round
2009 — 26 correct, three others off by one round

Note: I do not count "cheap" correct picks. For example, if I project a team to receive a fifth-round pick and a sixth-round pick but they instead receive a sixth and a seventh, I would count both of them as being off by one round. If, however, I am certain that the sixth-round pick was for the player I projected in that slot, I will count that pick as correct. The team's other pick, which I projected as being a fifth but was a seventh instead (and almost certainly for a different player), would simply be incorrect.

Comp pick projections coming soon

2010-03-03T02:03:00.001-08:00

Many people have wondered when I will post my final projections for the 2010 compensatory picks. I am in the process of finalizing those now. That process consists of verifying all of my information for this year's qualifying players and re-verifying certain information for previous years' qualifying players and comp picks, which were used to help project the values for this year's picks. Once I have verified all of this information and I am satisfied that the projections are the best I can do, all that's left is to write up the explanation of my projections and all other possible scenarios for this year's comp picks. At this point, I am hoping to post my final projections no later than March 9.

Explaining the Joey Porter fiasco

2010-02-13T13:31:00.000-08:00

The league's refusal to allow the Miami Dolphins to release Joey Porter this week caused some confusion, and not just in the Dolphins' front office. The confusion arises from the fact that many people don't realize that this still is the 2009 League Year; the 2010 League Year doesn't begin until March 5. Not only that, the 2009 League Year also is the Final Capped Year, which means that releases at this time of year are treated differently this season from how they normally are treated.

In the Final Capped Year, whenever a player is removed from the roster — even after June 1 — all bonus prorations from future seasons accelerate into that season. In all other seasons but the Final Capped Year, when a player is removed from the roster after June 1, the bonus prorations from future seasons accelerate into the following season. So, in other seasons, when a player is released between the Super Bowl and the start of the next league year, the acceleration hits the coming season's cap. This still is the Final Capped Year, though, so when a player is removed from a team's roster before the start of the 2010 League Year, the acceleration hits the 2009 salary cap. If the acceleration would put the team over the 2009 cap, that roster move is not allowed.

The Dolphins have less than $4.15 million of cap room remaining for the 2009 League Year. Porter's bonus prorations for 2010 and 2011 are $2.4 million each, so the accelerated cap charges for him would be $4.8 million. Thus, releasing Porter was not allowed.

Some reports have said that Porter has a $1 million roster bonus due on a specific date, such as March 1, March 5 or March 10, but those reports are incorrect. His roster bonus is due on the fifth day of the league year, which currently is scheduled to be March 9. If the NFL and NFLPA delay the start of the league year while CBA negotiations are going on, the date of Porter's bonus also gets pushed back. No matter what, the Dolphins will have four days after the start of the 2010 League Year to release Porter without having to pay his roster bonus. If Porter is released after the start of an uncapped 2010 season and before June 2, his 2011 bonus proration will not accelerate into 2010; acceleration into the current season occurs only in the Final Capped Year and the years prior to the Final Capped Year.

Projecting career rushing yardage

2010-02-02T16:47:00.000-08:00

A blog post by a Dallas Morning News reporter in December claimed that LaDainain Tomlinson "remains on pace to match" Emmitt Smith's all-time rushing record, but anyone who watched Tomlinson trudge along at 3.27 yards per carry this season knows that Tomlinson's chances of approaching Smith's record are almost nil. Bill Nichols' claim was based on the fact that Tomlinson had played 137 career games and had 12,321 career rushing yards, which was just 26 yards fewer than Smith had through the same number of games. Of course, Nichols ignored the two most important factors that go into determining the likelihood of a player ever reaching Smith's total of 18,355 yards, those being the player's age and his recent level of production.

Smith's 137th career game came when he was 29 years, 205 days old. Tomlinson's came when he was 30 years, 166 days old — essentially a full year older. And after 137 games, the younger Smith was far more productive than the older Tomlinson. The 29-year-old Smith rushed for 4.2 yards per carry and 1,332 yards, including seven 100-yard games. The 30-year-old Tomlinson rushed for just 730 yards and has gone 22 straight games without reaching the 100-yard mark. Smith at 30 also was far more productive than Tomlinson at 30, rushing for 1,397 yards at 4.2 yards per carry, with nine 100-yard games despite missing one game and having just one carry in another game. Smith, of course, remained productive for several years after that, even surpassing at age 35 what Tomlinson produced at age 30.

As the example of Smith and Tomlinson shows, being nearly equal in games played and career rushing yards does not make two running backs equal at that stage of their careers. A similar example is that of Steven Jackson and Priest Holmes. Jackson has 6,707 rushing yards after 84 career games, which is almost equal to Holmes' 6,692 after 87 career games. Jackson just completed a 1,416-yard season. Holmes after 87 games had just completed a 1,420-yard season. They were nearly equal in career games, career yards and current level of production. The difference, though, is their age. Jackson is 26 years old. Holmes, who was a rookie at age 26, was 30 years old after 87 games. He would go on to rush for just 1,480 more yards in his career.

A running back's career rushing yardage can be projected based on the two factors I mentioned earlier: age and recent level of production. Doug Drinen at pro-football-reference.com once attempted to do this by using a variation of Bill James' Favorite Toy, a method used to project career statistics for baseball players. The Favorite Toy calculates a player's remaining seasons based on his age and calculates his established level of production based on his previous three seasons. Those figures are then used to project his totals for future seasons, which can be added to his previous totals to project his career totals. Realizing that a running back's production would decline more quickly than a baseball player's production, Drinen made a slight adjustment to James' formula, changing one value from 0.7 to 0.6. Testing Drinen's formula by comparing its projections to the actual results for 20 running backs who had completed their careers since the mid-1980s, I found that their projected career totals using his formula were too low early in their careers and too high later in the careers. It became apparent to me that the shape of a running back's career doesn't match what is projected by the formula Drinen used.

The formula that James and Drinen used to determine a player's established level of production is this: three times the most recent season's total, plus two times the previous season's total, plus the total from the season before that, all divided by six. (Or, put another way, half of the most recent season's total, plus one-third of the previous season's total, plus one-sixth of the total from the season before that.) Drinen then calculated the player's remaining seasons by subtracting 70 percent of a player's age from 24. For example, a 27-year-old running back would be said to have 5.1 seasons remaining, because 70 percent of 27 is 18.9. (At the time of Drinen's post, James calculated baseball players' remaining seasons by using 24 minus 60 percent of the players age, but he since has changed his formula to use 21 minus half of the player's age, with a minimum of 1.5 seasons remaining.) The established level of production times the number of remaining seasons would then give the projected totals in future seasons. Adding that total to the player's actual total so far would yield the player's projected career total.

In my attempts to find a more accurate projection, it became apparent to me that, at least for running backs, a player's "remaining seasons" should not be considered to be the specific number of seasons that he will yet play. Rather, it merely is a number equivalent to his number of remaining seasons at his established level of production. In other words, a 28-year-old running back whose established level of production is 1,000 yards and who is projected to have four seasons remaining isn't necessarily projected to rush for 1,000 yards each season at ages 28, 29, 30 and 31, then end his career. Rather, he simply is projected to rush for 4,000 more yards in his career, which could mean rushing for 900 yards at age 28, then 800 at 29, 700 at 30, 600 at 31, 500 at 32 and 500 at age 33, or some other comination of ages and production that would equal a total of 4,000 yards. After moving past the idea that a player's career has a predetermined end point, and thus a certain number of "remaining seasons" based on a formula, I realized that it is not necessary to project how many more seasons a player will play. Rather, it's necessary only to project how many more total yards he will gain. That might seem obvious now, but it greatly simplified the exercise of coming up with a more accurate way to project the career yardage for running backs.

What I did next was to take the list of running backs with more than 9,000 career rushing yards, then choose those who had ended their careers most recently. I eliminated three players — Barry Sanders, Warrick Dunn and Tiki Barber — for several reasons. Sanders walked away from the game too soon, so using his numbers to help project career totals would skew the results. Dunn never carried the ball more than 286 times in a season and averaged just 222 carries per season. My primary goal was to project career totals for running backs who might challenge Smith's record, and a player with that few carries wouldn't have a chance. Using Dunn's numbers might not have affected the results significantly, but I saw no reason to include him. I excluded Barber for reasons that were a combination of those for excluding Dunn and Sanders. Barber averaged just 126 carries in his first five seasons, then retired at age 31 after rushing for 1,662 yards in a season. No player with so few carries in his first five seasons or who retires early will challenge Smith's record, so I saw no reason to include Barber, either.

That left me with nine of the top running backs whose careers had ended recently. I decided to include the No. 2 all-time rusher as well, although I adjusted Walter Payton's 1982 yardage to account for the strike-shortened, nine-game season. That left me with these 10 running backs —

Name	Career yards
Emmitt Smith	18,355
Walter Payton	16,726
Curtis Martin	14,101
Jerome Bettis	13,662
Marshall Faulk	12,279
Thurman Thomas	12,074
Corey Dillon	11,241
Rickey Watters	10,643
Eddie George	10,441
Shaun Alexander	9,453

For those 10 running backs, I calculated their established performance level at each age (starting at 24) and the total yardage they gained after each age, then determined the average mathematical relationship between those numbers for each age. By dividing their average remaining career yardage by their average established performance level at each age, I arrived at a more realistic equivalent of James' and Drinen's "remaining seasons." For now, I'll just call it the "age coefficient." I used some smoothing of the numbers starting after age 31, because players' careers were ending and the sample size was getting smaller.

Here is the age coefficient I ended up with for each age, along with the "remaining seasons" projected by Drinen's formula (note that "after age" refers to the remaining seasons after the completion of the season in which the player was that age on Dec. 31) —

	AC	RS
After age 24	8.05	6.5
After age 25	6.39	5.8
After age 26	4.84	5.1
After age 27	3.90	4.4
After age 28	3.18	3.7
After age 29	2.54	3.0
After age 30	1.52	2.3
After age 31	.96	1.6
After age 32	.83	0.9
After age 33	.72	0.2
After age 34	.62	??

These numbers confirm my initial observation that Drinen's formula underestimated career totals early in a player's career and overestimated them later in their careers, although it again underestimates them after age 33. Perhaps Drinen set a minimum number of remaining seasons, as James did, but he did not mention it in his blog post. Comparing each method to the actual career yardage for various running backs from recent seasons, my method was consistently closer to the actual results. So, although the numbers could be adjusted if necessary, they seem for now to be a pretty good method of projecting career rushing yardage.

Going back to Tomlinson, he has 12,490 rushing yards after his season at age 30. Based on his past three seasons, his current level of production is 980.67 yards. Using an age coefficient of 1.52, he is projected to rush for just 1,491 more yards in his career, which would leave him at 13,981 yards, good for merely fifth on the all-time list.

Another player who some people think could make a run at Smith's record is Adrian Peterson, who has 4,484 yards after age 24. His current production level of 1,501.67 yards multiplied by the age coefficient of 8.05 would give him 12,088 future yards for a total of 16,572 yards, which would leave him third all-time. As impressive as Peterson has been, he hasn't been able to match Smith thus far in his career. At the same age, Smith had rushed for 1,215 more yards than Peterson and had a production level of about 73 more yards in a season. Smith's projected career total at Peterson's age would have been 18,216 yards, which is just 139 yards less than his actual total of 18,355 yards.

Peterson's chances of making a run at Smith's record might be slim, but they're better than the chances of any other current player. Here's a look at the active running backs who are projected to finish with more than 10,000 career yards, along how far they are behind Smith at the same age —

Name	Age on Dec. 31	Current total	Smith's total at same age	Deficit at same age
Adrian Peterson	24	4,484	5,699	1,215
LaDainian Tomlinson	30	12,490	13,963	1,473
Clinton Portis	28	9,696	11,234	1,538
Maurice Jones-Drew	24	3,924	5,699	1,775
Steven Jackson	26	6,707	8,956	2,249
Chris Johnson	24	3,234	5,699	2,465
Edgerrin James	31	12,246	15,166	2,920
Jamal Lewis	30	10,607	13,963	3,356
Frank Gore	26	5,561	8,956	3,395
Matt Forte	24	2,167	5,699	3,532
DeAngelo Williams	26	3,850	8,956	5,106
Fred Taylor	33	11,540	17,162	5,622
Thomas Jones	31	9,217	15,166	5,949

And here are their projected totals —

Name	Age on Dec. 31	Current level	AC	Projected yards	Projected career total
Adrian Peterson	24	1,501.67	8.05	12,088	16,572
Chris Johnson	24	1,617.0*	8.05	13,017	16,251
LaDainian Tomlinson	30	980.67	1.52	1,491	13,981
Clinton Portis	28	953	3.18	3,031	12,727
Edgerrin James	31	437.5	0.96	420	12,666
Maurice Jones-Drew	24	1,098.17	8.05	8,840	12,764
Steven Jackson	26	1,222.33	4.84	5,916	12,623
Fred Taylor	33	520.17	0.72	375	11,915
Jamal Lewis	30	801.33	1.52	1,218	11,825
Frank Gore	26	1,089.00	4.84	5,271	10,832
Matt Forte	24	1,083.5*	8.05	8,722	10,889
Thomas Jones	31	1,324.83	0.96	1,272	10,489
DeAngelo Williams	26	1,183.00	4.84	5,726	9,576

*—For Chris Johnson and Matt Forte, each of whom have played only two seasons, I calculated their current level as if they had rushed for the same yardage in 2007 as they did as rookies in 2008. The result, then, is equal to their career average.

One other active running back I should mention is Jonathan Stewart, whose 1,969 career yards at age 22 are just 531 behind Smith's 2,500 at the same age. Given that Stewart shares carries with DeAngelo Williams, he's unlikely to challenge Smith's record unless Williams suffers a major injury or one of the two players changes teams soon. The age coefficients that I calculated begin after age 24, by which age most running backs have played at least three seasons, so I can't project Stewart's career total using that method. I can, however, project a total using Smith's career path. At age 22, Smith had a production level (calculated the same way I did for Chris Johnson and Matt Forte) of 1,250 yards. In the remainder of his career, he rushed for 15,855 yards, which would give him an age coefficient of 12.68. Multiplying that by Stewart's current level of production (984.5) gives him 12,483 projected yards for a projected career total of 14,452 yards. It's highly doubtful that Stewart will be able to match Smith's career path, especially given that Stewart currently is a backup, but even doing so would leave him almost 4,000 yards behind Smith's record.

So, exactly what will it take for a running back to challenge Smith's record, short of the NFL expanding the regular season? Most likely, it will take a player who entered the NFL by age 21, as Smith did. Smith essentially has a head start over any back who is a rookie at age 22 or 23. It obviously also will take a player who is among the most productive backs in history during his prime. Smith remains the most productive back in history from ages 22 to 27 — a period of his career that has nothing to do with entering the NFL early or his extraordinary longevity. And it almost certainly will take a player who can match or surpass that longevity. Smith holds the record for rushing yards at 28 and older by more than 1,000 over Walter Payton and by more than 1,700 over every other back who had a heavy workload before age 28. And Smith had 14 seasons with at least 240 rushing attempts and 900 rushing yards; no other player has had more than 10 of either one.

Finally, what would have happened if Barry Sanders had not retired after age 30? Based on this method of projecting yardage, he would have gained 2,567 more yards in his career (a production level of 1,688.67 times an age coefficient of 1.52). That would have given him 17,836 career yards, which is 519 fewer than Smith's record. Sanders would have had to exceed his projected longevity and production in order to finish with more yards than Smith's career total of 18,355. It's possible that he could have, if only he would have had the desire to keep playing, but it's not something we can say was statistically likely to happen.

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part VII

2010-01-10T20:20:00.000-08:00

The final post in my series explaining the compensatory pick possibilities for each team takes a look at the remaining teams in the AFC South.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.

Click here to read why Denver will not get any comp picks this year.

San Diego — The Chargers lost two qualifying players and signed one. They should receive one comp pick for the loss of Igor Olshansky, in either the fifth or sixth round.

Oakland — The Raiders lost one qualifying player (Jake Grove) and signed one (Khalif Barnes) who likely will qualify. If Barnes does qualify, the Raiders will receive a net-value comp pick at the end of the seventh round, after the true comp picks but before any non-compensatory picks that might be added. If Barnes does not qualify, the Raiders will receive a comp pick for Grove, likely in the fourth round but possibly in the fifth.

Kansas City — The Chiefs did not lose any qualifying players and will not receive a comp pick.

The first six posts in this series covered a handful of the teams who will not receive a comp pick, the NFC East and NFC North, the NFC South and NFC West, the AFC East, the AFC North and the AFC South.