Monday, December 21, 2009

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part III

The third post of my series explaining at the compensatory pick possibilities for each team takes a look at the remaining teams in the NFC South and NFC West.

Click here to read why the other teams in the NFC South and NFC West won't get any comp picks in 2010.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.


Atlanta — The Falcons lost four qualifying players and signed either one or two. They should receive a third- or fourth-round pick for losing Dominique Foxworth and a fifth or sixth for losing Michael Boley. If Brett Romberg does not qualify, the Falcons also will receive a pick as compensation for losing Grady Jackson, likely in the seventh round.

Carolina — The Panthers didn't sign any qualifying players, so they will receive a comp pick for each qualifying player lost. They should get a fifth or sixth for Geoff Hangartner and a sixth or seventh for Frank Omiyale. There is a small chance that Mark Jones also will qualify. If so, the Panthers would get a seventh for him.

Tampa Bay — The Buccaneers will not get a comp pick. They lost only two qualifying players, and they signed either three or four.

Arizona — The Cardinals could get a third- or fourth-round pick, or they could get nothing. They lost one player who definitely will qualify and signed one player who definitely will qualify. The question is whether Terrelle Smith will count as a player lost and whether Jason Wright will count as a player signed. At this point, I would project that both of them will qualify based on their contract values, leaving the Cardinals with no comp picks. If Wright qualfies and Smith doesn't, they wouldn't get a comp pick, either. But if Smith qualifies and Wright doesn't, the Cardinals would get a third- or fourth-round pick as compensation for losing Antonio Smith.

San Francisco — The 49ers should get one comp pick, with a very small chance that they'll get two. They signed three players who qualify and lost four who qualify and one who is on the bubble but almost certainly will not qualify. Their comp pick would be in the sixth or seventh round, most likely the seventh. If they do get a second comp pick, it would be in the seventh.

Seattle — Any comp picks the Seahawks get will be in the seventh round. The only question is how many. They signed two players who will qualify and one who might qualify. They lost three players who will qualify and two who might. The various combinations of John Owens qualifying as a player signed, Bobby Engram qualifying as a player lost and/or Floyd Womack qualifying as a player lost could result in the Seahawks getting one, two or even three seventh-round comp picks.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part II

In the second post of my series explaining at the compensatory pick possibilities for each team, it's time to take a look at the remaining teams in the NFC East and NFC North.

Click here to read why the other teams in the NFC East and NFC North won't get any comp picks in 2010.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.


Philadelphia — The Eagles signed three players who will qualify for the comp picks equation and lost five players who will qualify, so they should receive two picks. The only player they lost whose compensatory value is higher than a seventh-round pick is Brian Dawkins, and the signing of Stacy Andrews, whose average contract value is almost twice as much, cancels out the loss of Dawkins. Therefore, the Eagles should receive two comp picks in the seventh round.

Minnesota — The Vikings lost two qualifying players and signed one, giving them one comp pick. The signing of Karl Paymah cancels out the loss of their lower-valued player lost, and that is Darren Sharper, whose performance this season is irrelevant to the equation. That leaves the Vikings with a pick as compensation for losing Matt Birk, in either the fifth or sixth round.

Green Bay — The Packers lost Colin Cole and didn't sign anyone who will qualify. They should receive a comp pick in either the fifth or sixth round.

Chicago — The Bears will not receive a comp pick. They signed two players who will qualify, and they lost one who will qualify and one (Brandon McGowan) who almost certainly will not qualify. Even if McGowan somehow qualifies, the combined values of the players signed is more than that of the players lost, so the Bears will not even receive a "net value" pick.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Early comp pick projections for 2010, Part I

To begin my series of posts explaining at the compensatory pick possibilities for each team, I'll take a look at nine teams who definitely won't be getting any true comp picks in 2010. They are Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, New Orleans, the New York Giants, St. Louis and Washington. (Note that the posts in this series are not my final projections and are subject to change, but they are my best estimations at this point in time.) There might be other teams that won't get any comp picks, either, and they will be addressed later in the series.

Click here to review the Unrestricted Free Agents lost and signed by each team during the qualifying period of the 2009 offseason.

As a reminder, teams cannot receive a true comp pick if they signed more qualifying players than they lost. If they signed as many as they lost, the only true comp pick they could get is what I call a "net value" comp pick. Those are awarded at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks. To get a "net value" pick, a team must have lost the same number of qualifying players as they signed, and the players they lost must have a combined value that is significantly higher than the players they signed.


Here's the situation for each of these nine teams —


Cleveland — The Browns signed three players who will qualify and two more who might qualify. They lost only one player who definitely will qualify and two others who are on the bubble to qualify. Even if both bubble players that were lost qualify for the equation and neither of the bubble players the Browns signed qualify, the combined value of the players signed is greater than that of the players lost. That means the Browns won't even get a "net value" comp pick.

Dallas — The Cowboys signed three qualifying players and lost two, plus one who is on the bubble for qualifying. Even if the bubble player qualifies and the Cowboys break even in the equation, the values on each side of the ledger are too close for the Cowboys to get a "net value" pick.

Denver — The Broncos lost only one qualifying player and signed 10. They definitely won't get anything.

Detroit — The Lions lost three qualifying players and one who might qualify. They signed seven players who qualify, so they will not get a comp pick.

Houston — The Texans lost only one qualifying player and signed three.

New Orleans — The Saints lost only one qualifying player. They signed three who will qualify and two more who are on the bubble.

New York Giants — The Giants lost two players who will qualify and one who might qualify. They signed four players who will qualify.

St. Louis — The Rams lost only one player who might qualify. They signed three players who will qualify and one who might.

Washington — The Redskins lost only one player who will qualify (Demetric Evans). They signed one who definitely will qualify (Albert Haynesworth) and two others who are on the bubble. Even if neither of the bubble players qualifies, Haynesworth's value is far greater than Evans' value, so the Redskins would not get a "net value" pick.


A few of those teams have a chance to get an additional non-compensatory pick, if the NFL awards fewer than 32 true comp picks. If fewer than 32 are awarded, the NFL adds picks as if the eighth round were starting, until a total of 32 additional comp picks and non-comp picks have been awarded.

The Rams, Browns, Lions, Redskins and possibly the Texans could be in contention for non-comp picks, depending on their position in the final draft order and how many non-comp picks are awarded, if any.

Monday, November 30, 2009

An updated look at the 2010 comp picks

Here's an updated look at the players eligible for the 2010 compensatory picks equation. For players who were cut during the season, the date is included, as is the date they re-signed, if applicable. Players on the bubble to qualify for the equation are listed either as "high bubble" or "low bubble." The "high bubble" players typically have a better chance of qualifying, depending on their playing time. "NQ" indicates that the player did not sign for enough money to qualify for the equation.

The list --


ARIZONA
Lost – DE Antonio Smith, CB Eric Green (cut), RB Terrelle Smith, LB Monty Beisel (low bubble, cut 9/29), RB J.J. Arrington (cut)
Signed – CB Bryant McFadden, RB Jason Wright (high bubble)

ATLANTA
Lost – CB Dominique Foxworth, LB Michael Boley, LB Keith Brooking, DT Grady Jackson
Signed – LB Mike Peterson, C Brett Romberg (high bubble)

BALTIMORE
Lost – LB Bart Scott, C Jason Brown, S Jim Leonhard, QB Kyle Boller, CB Corey Ivy (low bubble, cut), FB Lorenzo Neal (low bubble, cut), WR Terrance Copper (NQ)
Signed – CB Dominique Foxworth, C Matt Birk, CB Chris Carr, TE L.J. Smith

BUFFALO
Lost – CB Jabari Greer, LB Angelo Crowell, C Duke Preston (high bubble, cut), DE Tony Hargrove (NQ)
Signed – C Geoff Hangartner, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Dominic Rhodes (cut), G Seth McKinney (NQ), LB Patrick Thomas (NQ, cut)

CAROLINA
Lost – C Geoff Hangartner, T Frank Omiyale, WR Mark Jones (high bubble, cut 9/5, re-signed 9/29), LB Adam Seward (NQ, cut)
Signed – none

CHICAGO
Lost – T John St. Clair, S Brandon McGowan (low bubble)
Signed – T Frank Omiyale, S Josh Bullocks

CINCINNATI
Lost – WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, T Stacy Andrews, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, G Eric Ghiaciuc (NQ, cut)
Signed – WR Laveranues Coles, QB J.T. O’Sullivan, DT Tank Johnson (NQ)

CLEVELAND
Lost – S Sean Jones, RB Jason Wright (high bubble), G Scott Young (cut), TE Darnell Dinkins (low bubble), G Seth McKinney (NQ), CB Travis Daniels (NQ, cut)
Signed – LB Eric Barton, T John St. Clair, DE C.J. Mosley, T Floyd Womack (high bubble), CB Corey Ivy (low bubble, cut), CB Hank Poteat (low bubble)

DALLAS
Lost – DE Chris Canty, LB Kevin Burnett, LB Zach Thomas (cut), G Joe Berger (high bubble), DT Tank Johnson (NQ), S Keith Davis (NQ, cut)
Signed – DT Igor Olshansky, LB Keith Brooking, S Gerald Sensabaugh

DENVER
Lost – CB Karl Paymah, QB Patrick Ramsey (low bubble, cut 10/3)
Signed – CB Andre Goodman, S Brian Dawkins, QB Chris Simms, NT Ronald Fields, WR Jabar Gaffney, CB Renaldo Hill, DT Darrell Reid, RB Correll Buckhalter, RB LaMont Jordan, LS Lonie Paxton, T Brandon Gorin (NQ), RB J.J. Arrington (cut), G Scott Young (cut)

DETROIT
Lost – NT Shaun Cody, QB Dan Orlovsky, RB Moran Norris, TE John Owens (high bubble), LB Paris Lenon (low bubble, cut), WR Shaun McDonald (NQ)
Signed – CB Phillip Buchanon, WR Bryant Johnson, DT Grady Jackson, T Daniel Loper, CB Eric King, RB Maurice Morris, RB Terrelle Smith, LB Cody Spencer (NQ, IR in preseason), TE Will Heller (NQ)

GREEN BAY
Lost – DT Colin Cole
Signed – C Duke Preston (high bubble, cut)

HOUSTON
Lost – S C.C. Brown, CB DeMarcus Faggins (cut), LS Bryan Pittman (NQ, cut)
Signed – DE Antonio Smith, QB Dan Orlovsky, NT Shaun Cody, OL Adrian Jones (NQ, cut)

INDIANAPOLIS
Lost – DT Darrell Reid, RB Dominic Rhodes (cut), P Hunter Smith (low bubble), CB Keiwan Ratliff (NQ)
Signed – LB Adam Seward (NQ, cut)

JACKSONVILLE
Lost – LB Mike Peterson, S Gerald Sensabaugh, T Khalif Barnes, S Pierson Prioleau (low bubble)
Signed – T Tra Thomas, S Sean Considine

KANSAS CITY
Lost – LB Patrick Thomas (NQ, cut), OL Adrian Jones (NQ, cut)
Signed – LB Zach Thomas (cut), G Mike Goff, WR Bobby Engram (cut 11/9), LB Monty Beisel (low bubble, cut 9/29), WR Terrance Copper (NQ), G Eric Ghiaciuc (NQ, cut), CB Travis Daniels (NQ, cut 9/4, re-signed 11/4), TE Sean Ryan (NQ)

MIAMI
Lost – CB Andre Goodman, CB Renaldo Hill, C Al Johnson (high bubble, cut)
Signed – C Jake Grove, CB Eric Green (cut), G Joe Berger (high bubble)

MINNESOTA
Lost – C Matt Birk, S Darren Sharper, T Marcus Johnson (NQ, cut)
Signed – CB Karl Paymah

NEW ENGLAND
Lost – WR Jabar Gaffney, FB Heath Evans, LS Lonie Paxton, RB LaMont Jordan, LB Larry Izzo (low bubble)
Signed – C Al Johnson (high bubble, cut), LB Paris Lenon (low bubble, cut), S Brandon McGowan (low bubble), DT Damane Duckett (cut)

NEW ORLEANS
Lost – S Josh Bullocks
Signed – CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper, FB Heath Evans, TE Darnell Dinkins (low bubble), S Pierson Prioleau (low bubble), DE Tony Hargrove (NQ), C Nick Leckey (NQ)

NEW YORK GIANTS
Lost – RB Derrick Ward, S James Butler, DE Renaldo Wynn (low bubble, cut 10/12, re-signed 10/12, cut 10/18, re-signed 10/19)
Signed – DE Chris Canty, LB Michael Boley, DT Rocky Bernard, S C.C. Brown

NEW YORK JETS
Lost – WR Laveranues Coles, LB Eric Barton, DE C.J. Mosley, K Mike Nugent (cut 10/5), CB Hank Poteat (low bubble), LB Cody Spencer (NQ)
Signed – LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard, CB Donald Strickland, LB Larry Izzo (low bubble), DT Howard Green (NQ, cut 10/17, re-signed 10/20)

OAKLAND
Lost – C Jake Grove, S Rashad Baker (high bubble, cut)
Signed – T Khalif Barnes, QB Jeff Garcia (cut), FB Lorenzo Neal (low bubble, cut), T Marcus Johnson (NQ, cut), DT Ryan Boschetti (NQ, cut), S Keith Davis (NQ, cut)

PHILADELPHIA
Lost – S Brian Dawkins, T Tra Thomas, RB Correll Buckhalter, TE L.J. Smith, S Sean Considine
Signed – T Stacy Andrews, S Sean Jones, RB Leonard Weaver, S Rashad Baker (high bubble, cut)

PITTSBURGH
Lost – CB Bryant McFadden, WR Nate Washington, QB Byron Leftwich, T Marvel Smith (retired)
Signed – WR Shaun McDonald (NQ), CB Keiwan Ratliff (NQ)

SAN DIEGO
Lost – DT Igor Olshansky, G Mike Goff, LB Marques Harris (NQ, cut 10/28)
Signed – LB Kevin Burnett

SAN FRANCISCO
Lost – WR Bryant Johnson, NT Ronald Fields, QB J.T. O’Sullivan, CB Donald Strickland, TE Billy Bajema (low bubble), TE Sean Ryan (NQ), DT Damane Duckett (cut)
Signed – WR Brandon Jones, RB Moran Norris, DE Demetric Evans, T Marvel Smith (retired), LB Marques Harris (NQ, cut 10/28)

SEATTLE
Lost – DT Rocky Bernard, RB Maurice Morris, RB Leonard Weaver, WR Bobby Engram (cut 11/9), T Floyd Womack (high bubble), TE Will Heller (NQ), DT Howard Green (NQ, cut 10/17, re-signed 10/20)
Signed – WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, DT Colin Cole, TE John Owens (high bubble), LS Bryan Pittman (NQ, cut)

ST. LOUIS
Lost – C Brett Romberg (high bubble), C Nick Leckey (NQ), T Brandon Gorin (NQ)
Signed – C Jason Brown, S James Butler, QB Kyle Boller, TE Billy Bajema (low bubble)

TAMPA BAY
Lost – CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Jovan Haye, QB Jeff Garcia (cut)
Signed – RB Derrick Ward, LB Angelo Crowell (IR in preseason), K Mike Nugent (cut 10/5), QB Byron Leftwich

TENNESSEE
Lost – DT Albert Haynesworth, WR Brandon Jones, QB Chris Simms, CB Chris Carr, CB Eric King, T Daniel Loper
Signed – WR Nate Washington, DT Jovan Haye, CB DeMarcus Faggins (cut), WR Mark Jones (high bubble, cut 9/5, re-signed 9/29), QB Patrick Ramsey (low bubble, cut 10/3)

WASHINGTON
Lost – DE Demetric Evans, DT Ryan Boschetti (NQ, cut)
Signed – DT Albert Haynesworth, DE Renaldo Wynn (low bubble, cut 10/10, re-signed 10/12, cut 10/17, resigned 10/19), P Hunter Smith (low bubble)



The curious case of Laveranues Coles

Someone recently asked me whether Laveranues Coles might not be eligible for the compensatory picks equation because he was "cut" by the Jets. Coles was not released by the Jets, although some media reports said he was. The Jets actually renegotiated his contract to make his 2009 season voidable, so his contract voided, and he became a true Unrestricted Free Agent.

Plenty of players have qualified for the comp equation after becoming UFAs because their contract voided, even if the voidable year was put in the contract through renegotiation. However, Coles' situation is a little less clear because of the timing involved. Coles' renegotiation was signed on Feb. 25, and his contract voided on Feb. 27. Normally, a player "earns" a void in his contract by doing something more than simply waiting two days, so it's possible that the NFL will not consider Coles eligible for the comp picks equation. Players who have had contract years simply deleted -- not converted to voidable years -- by renegotiation have never qualified for the equation, and Coles' situation is close to that. However, because a voidable year has never disqualified a player from the equation, I'm currently projecting that Coles will be eligible.

While researching Coles' case, I discovered that Andra Davis had his 2009 and 2010 seasons deleted by renegotiation, so he no longer appears on this list. Because Davis' current team (Denver) and his former team (Cleveland) both signed more players than they lost, he likely wouldn't have affected the comp picks anyway.

As always, corrections and questions are welcomed.